Table 2.
Incidence rate and risk of Type 2 diabetes stratified by different risk factors.
| Risk factors | Number | Incident diabetes | Cumulative incidence (%, 95% CI) |
Odds ratio (95% CI) * |
P |
| Sex | 0.04 | ||||
| Males | 1386 | 91 | 6.6 (5.3–8.0) | 1 | |
| Females | 1921 | 146 | 7.6 (6.4–8.8) | 1.3 (1.0–1.7) | |
| All | 3307 | 237 | 7.2 (6.3–8.1) | ||
| Age (years) | <0.001 | ||||
| 20–34 | 1108 | 37 | 3.1 (2.4–4.6) | 1 | |
| 35–49 | 1210 | 88 | 7.3‡ (5.9–8.9) | 2.4 (1.6–3.6) | |
| 50–64 | 711 | 86 | 12.1†(9.8–14.7) | 4.3 (2.9–6.3) | |
| ≥ 65 | 206 | 26 | 12.6 (8.4–17.9) | 4.5 (2.6–7.5) | |
| Family history of diabetes | <0.001 | ||||
| No | 2335 | 129 | 5.6 (4.6–6.5) | 1 | |
| Yes | 882 | 99 | 11.2‡ (9.2–13.5) | 2.4 (1.8–3.2) | |
| History of CVD | 0.3 | ||||
| No | 3119 | 215 | 6.9 (6.0–7.8) | 1 | |
| Yes | 113 | 16 | 14.2† (8.3–22.0) | 1.3 (0.7–2.3) | |
| Smoking | 0.7 | ||||
| Never | 2650 | 189 | 7.1 (6.2–8.23) | 1 | |
| Current | 361 | 30 | 7.2 (5.7–11.7) | 1.0 (0.7–1.6) | |
| Past | 193 | 18 | 7.3 (5.6–14.3) | 0.7 (0.4–1.2) | |
| Education | 0.001 | ||||
| Illiterate/primary school | 972 | 119 | 12.2 (10.2–14.5) | 1 | |
| Secondary school | 593 | 41 | 6.9‡ (5.0–9.3) | 0.8 (0.5–1.2) | |
| Diploma and higher | 1740 | 77 | 4.4† (3.5–5.5) | 0.5 (0.4–0.8) | |
| Hypertension | <0.001 | ||||
| No | 2657 | 147 | 5.5 (4.7–6.5) | 1 | |
| Yes | 631 | 88 | 14.0‡ (11.3–16.9) | 1.9 (1.4–2.6) | |
| Obesity | <0.001 | ||||
| Normal weight | 1190 | 41 | 3.5 (2.5–4.6) | 1 | |
| Overweight | 1346 | 86 | 6.4‡ (5.1–7.8) | 1.7 (1.1–2.5) | |
| Obese | 771 | 110 | 14.3‡ (11.9–16.9) | 4.0 (2.7–5.8) | |
| Abdominal obesity | 0.001 | ||||
| No | 2225 | 98 | 4.4 (3.6–5.3) | 1 | |
| Yes | 1038 | 135 | 13.0‡ (11.0–15.2) | 1.4 (1.3–1.5) | |
| High Triglyceride | <0.001 | ||||
| No | 2449 | 136 | 5.6 (4.7–6.5) | 1 | |
| Yes | 858 | 101 | 11.8‡ (9.7–14.1) | 2.0 (1.5–2.6) | |
| Low HDL-cholesterol | 0.04 | ||||
| No | 1001 | 61 | 6.1 (4.7–7.8) | 1 | |
| Yes | 2306 | 176 | 7.6‡ (6.6–8.8) | 1.4 (1.0–1.9) | |
| Glucose tolerance category | |||||
| Normal | 3216 | 94 | 2.9 (2.4–3.6) | 1 | <0.001 |
| Isolated IFG | 60 | 12 | 20.0 (10.8–32.3) ‡ | 8.3 (4.2–16.5) | |
| Isolated IGT | 442 | 85 | 19.2 (15.7–23.2) | 7.1 (5.1–9.8) | |
| IFG/IGT | 77 | 46 | 59.7 (47.9–70.8) ‡ | 42.2 (25.8–75.7) |
*Cumulative incidences were compared by Chi-squared test. Odds ratios were calculated by logistic regression analysis after controlling for age. For categorical variables with more than 2 values, the first category was considered as the reference and the p-value is for linear trend in risk.
Obesity: BMI<25 (normal), 25–29.9 (overweight) and ≥ 30 kg/m2 (obese), Abdominal obesity: waist circumference>88 or >102 cm in females and males respectively, Hypertension: Blood pressure ≥ 140/90 and/or taking of antihypertensive medication, High TG:Triglyderide>2.2 mmol/l, Low HDL: HDL-cholesterol <1.0 or <1.3 mmol/l in males and females respectively, Isolated IFG: FPG 6.1–6.9 and 2 hPG<7.8 mmol/l, Isolated IGT:FPG<6.1 and 2-hours plasma glucose 7.8–11 mmol/l, IFG/IGT: FPG 6.1–6.9 and 2 hPG 7.8–11 mmol/l.
† and ‡ represent P < 0.05 and P < 0.001 in comparison to the preceding category.