Table 2. Bias-corrected AICc-values of models that consider sprayed and unsprayed target sites and fit different numbers of parameters.
| Model time and source definition | Estimated effects of spraying on bug establishment | Effects of previous infestation on bug establishment (γ) estimated | |
| yes | no | ||
| discrete (ii) | Short term effect (ρ) only | 999.2 | 1004.6 |
| Short and long term effects (α and β) | 999.9 | 1005.2 | |
| continuous (ii′) | Effect on establishment (β) only (pI = 1) | 1002.0 | 1006.3 |
| Effect on establishment (β) and probability of instantaneous extinction (pI) | 1004.0 | 1008.3 | |
In every case, estimating the effects of previous infestation on bug establishment gave the lower AICc-value, indicating the better fit.