Table 3.
Three year and 5 year cumulative incidence rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or more severe (CIN II+) and CIN III+ after repeat measurements of carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) at about 1 year interval (9-21 months)
| No of women | CIN II+ | CIN III+ | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 year | 5 year | 3 year | 5 year | ||||||||||||
| No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | |||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence | 260 | 38 | 17.04 (12.05 to 22.03) | 14.53 (4.53 to 46.58) | 42 | 23.69 (14.75 to 32.62) | 14.99 (5.28 to 42.62) | 24 | 11.27 (6.97 to 15.57) | 28 | 18.38 (7.02 to 15.10) | 44.66 (5.94 to 335.88) | |||
| Specific genotype persistence | 209 | 38 | 21.26 (15.18 to 27.33) | 18.12 (5.66 to 57.99) | 42 | 29.90 (18.65 to 41.14) | 18.92 (6.66 to 53.76) | 24 | 14.22 (8.86 to 19.57) | 28 | 23.63 (11.88 to 35.57) | 57.42 (7.63 to 432.02) | |||
| Non-persistence | 51 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| HP 16 persistence | 55 | 19 | 40.77 (26.40 to 55.13) | 34.75 (10.66 to 113.26) | 19 | 40.77 (26.40 to 55.13) | 25.81 (9.16 to 72.71) | 13 | 30.57 (16.42 to 44.71) | 13 | 30.57 (16.42 to 44.71) | 74.28 (9.95 to 554.32) | |||
| HPV 18 persistence | 18 | 3 | 17.46 (−0.58 to 35.50) | 14.88 (3.22 to 68.70) | 3 | 17.46 (−0.58 to 35.50) | 11.05 (2.67 to 45.73) | 1 | 5.56 (−5.03 to 16.14) | 1 | 5.56 (−5.03 to 16.14) | 13.50 (0.88−207.03) | |||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence (not 16 and 18) | 187 | 16 | 10.00 (5.32 to 14.68) | 8.53 (2.51 to 28.91) | 20 | 18.19 (8.02 to 28.37) | 11.52 (3.75 to 35.41) | 10 | 6.23 (2.52 to 10.23) | 14 | 14.90 (4.66 to 25.13) | 36.20 (4.55 to 287.76) | |||
| Acquisition | 125 | 4 | 3.44 (0.10 to 6.78) | 2.93 (0.66 to 12.98) | 5 | 4.44 (−0.28 to 5.08) | 2.81 (0.76 to 10.35) | 2 | 1.60 (−0.60 to 3.80) | 3 | 2.63 (−0.28 to 5.08) | 6.38 (0.67 to 60.93) | |||
| Clearance (reference)‡ | 282 | 3 | 1.17 (−0.15 to 2.50) | 1.00 | 4 | 1.58 (0.04 to 3.12) | 1.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.41 (−0.39 to 1.22) | 1.00 | |||
| HPV negative | 1615 | 7 | 0.49 (0.13 to 0.85) | 0.42 (0.11 to 1.61) | 7 | 0.49 (0.13 to 0.85) | 0.31 (0.09 to 1.06) | 4 | 0.28 (0.01 to 0.56) | 4 | 0.28 (0.01 to 0.56) | 0.69 (0.08 to 6.12) | |||
*Cumulative incidence rates.
†Cumulative incidence rate ratio; when no events of CIN II+ occurred in reference group, this could not be calculated (NA).
‡Women who tested positive and then negative for carcinogenic HPV (“clearance”).