Table 4.
Three year and 5 year cumulative incidence rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or more severe (CIN II+) and CIN III+ after repeat measurements of carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) at about 1 year interval (9-21 months) according to age of women
| No of women | CIN II+ | CIN III+ | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 year | 5 year | 3 year | 5 year | ||||||||||||
| No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | |||||
| Age <30 | |||||||||||||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence | 97 | 16 | 19.02 (8.33 to 24.23) | 19.40 (2.62 to 143.59) | 17 | 20.29 (11.52 to 29.06) | 10.60 (2.51 to 44.70) | 8 | 10.06 (3.31 to 16.82) | 9 | 11.47 (4.28 to 18.65) | 12.15 (1.57 to 94.32) | |||
| Specific genotype persistence | 66 | 16 | 28.22 (16.18 to 40.27) | 28.79 (3.91 to 211.99) | 17 | 30.11 (17.83 to 42.40) | 15.73 (3.76 to 65.87) | 8 | 15.25 (5.21 to 25.28) | 9 | 17.48 (6.79 to 28.16) | 18.53 (2.40 to 143.08) | |||
| Non-persistence | 31 | 0 | 0.00 () | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| HP 16 persistence | 22 | 11 | 65.91 (40.36 to 91.46) | 67.23 (9.20 to 491.08) | 11 | 65.91 (40.36 to 91.46) | 34.43 (8.27 to 143.35) | 6 | 40.34 (11.39 to 69.29) | 6 | 40.34 (11.39 to 69.29) | 42.76 (5.35 to 341.78) | |||
| HPV 18 persistence | 7 | 1 | 14.29 (−11.6 to 40.21) | 14.57 (1.02 to 209.15) | 1 | 14.29 (−11.6 to 40.21) | 7.46 (0.77 to 72.62) | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence (not 16 and 18) | 68 | 4 | 7.05 (0.35 to 13.75) | 7.19 (0.82 to 62.93) | 5 | 8.77 (1.39 to 16.14) | 4.58 (0.92 to 22.91) | 2 | 3.77 (−1.36 to 8.90) | 3 | 5.56 (−0.55 to 11.67) | 5.89 (0.63 to 55.28) | |||
| Acquisition | 56 | 2 | 3.57 (−1.29 to 8.43) | 3.64 (0.34 to 39.29) | 3 | 5.92 (−0.65 to 12.50) | 3.09 (0.53 to 18.08) | 1 | 1.79 (−1.68 to 5.25) | 2 | 4.18 (−1.56 to 9.92) | 4.43 (0.41 to 48.15) | |||
| Clearance (reference)‡ | 125 | 1 | 0.98 (−0.93 to 2.89) | 1.00 | 2 | 1.91 (−0.71 to 4.54) | 1.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.94 (−0.90 to 2.78) | 1.00 | |||
| HPV negative | 334 | 2 | 0.77 (−0.29 to 1.82) | 0.78 (0.07 to 8.53) | 2 | 0.77 (−0.29 to 1.82) | 0.40 (0.06 to 2.80) | 1 | 0.38 (−0.37 to 1.13) | 1 | 0.38 (−0.37 to 1.13) | 0.41 (0.03 to 6.43) | |||
| Age ≥30 | |||||||||||||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence |
163 | 22 | 15.79 (9.69 to 21.89) | 11.64 (2.78 to 48.75) | 25 | 25.88 (12.56 to 39.19) | 19.07 (4.37 to 83.12) | 16 | 11.84 (6.34 to 17.34) | 19 | 22.40 (8.75 to 36.05) | NA | |||
| Specific genotype persistence | 143 | 22 | 18.11 (11.21 to 25.02) | 13.35 (3.19 to 55.84) | 25 | 30.62 (14.59 to 44.65) | 22.56 (5.16 to 98.66) | 16 | 13.67 (7.38 to 19.96) | 19 | 26.85 (10.24 to 43.46) | NA | |||
| Non-persistence | 20 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | |||
| HP 16 persistence | 33 | 8 | 27.18 (11.09 to 43.26) | 20.03 (4.46 to 89.84) | 8 | 27.18 (11.09 to 43.26) | 20.03 (4.46 to 89.84) | 7 | 24.67 (8.80 to 40.53) | 7 | 24.67 (8.80 to 40.53) | NA | |||
| HPV 18 persistence | 11 | 2 | 20.45 (−5.14 to 46.05) | 15.07 (2.34 to 97.06) | 2 | 20.45 (−5.14 to 46.05) | 15.07 (2.34 to 97.06) | 1 | 9.09 (−7.90 to 26.08) | 1 | 9.09 (−7.90 to 26.08) | NA | |||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence (not 16 and 18) | 119 | 12 | 11.68 (5.42 to 17.93) | 8.60 (1.96 to 37.79) | 15 | 23.08 (8.52 to 37.63) | 17.01 (3.73 to 77.51) | 8 | 7.87 (2.58 to 13.16) | 11 | 19.77 (4.95 to 34.85) | NA | |||
| Acquisition | 69 | 2 | 3.21 (−1.19 to 7.61) | 2.36 (0.34 to 16.54) | 2 | 3.21 (−1.19 to 7.61) | 2.36 (0.34 to 16.54) | 1 | 1.45 (−1.37 to 4.27) | 1 | 1.45 (−1.37 to 4.27) | NA | |||
| Clearance (reference)‡ | 157 | 2 | 1.36 (−0.51 to 3.23) | 1.00 | 2 | 1.36 (−0.51 to 3.23) | 1.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | |||
| HPV negative | 1281 | 5 | 0.43 (0.05 to 0.81) | 0.32 (0.06 to 1.62) | 5 | 0.43 (0.05 to 0.81) | 0.32 (0.06 to 1.62) | 3 | 0.26 (−0.03 to 0.56) | 3 | 0.26 (−0.03 to 0.56) | NA | |||
*Cumulative incidence rates.
†Cumulative incidence rate ratio; when no events of CIN II+ occurred in reference group, this could not be calculated (NA).
‡Women who tested positive and then negative for carcinogenic HPV (“clearance”).