Table 5.
Three year and 5 year cumulative incidence rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or more severe (CIN II+) and CIN III+ after repeat measurements of carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) at about 1 year interval (9-21 months) according to cytology results
| No of women | CIN II+ | CIN III+ | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 year | 5 year | 3 year | 5 year | |||||||||||||
| No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95%CI) | ||||||
| ASCUS or more severe cytology | ||||||||||||||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence | 89 | 21 | 28.79 (18.12 to 39.46) | NA | 21 | 28.79 (18.12 to 39.46) | NA | 11 | 15.00 (6.53 to 23.48) | 11 | 15.00 (6.53 to 23.48) | NA | ||||
| Specific genotype persistence | 73 | 21 | 34.93 (22.49 to 47.36) | NA | 21 | 34.93 (22.49 to 47.36) | NA | 11 | 18.73 (8.25 to 29.20) | 11 | 18.73 (8.25 to 29.20) | NA | ||||
| Non-persistence | 16 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | 0 | 0.00 | NA | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | ||||
| HP 16 persistence | 17 | 8 | 58.18 (30.88 to 85.48) | NA | 8 | 58.18 (30.88 to 85.48) | NA | 4 | 27.94 (3.29 to 52.59) | 4 | 27.94 (3.29 to 52.59) | NA | ||||
| HPV 18 persistence | 9 | 3 | 37.78 (2.91 to 72.65) | NA | 3 | 37.78 (2.91 to 72.65) | NA | 1 | 11.11 (−9.42 to 31.64) | 1 | 11.11 (−9.42 to 31.64) | NA | ||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence (not 16 and 18) | 63 | 10 | 19.62 (8.51 to 30.73) | NA | 10 | 19.62 (8.51 to 30.73) | NA | 6 | 11.80 (2.71 to 20.90) | 6 | 11.80 (2.71 to 20.90) | NA | ||||
| Acquisition | 31 | 1 | 3.23 (−2.99 to 9.45) | NA | 1 | 3.23 (−2.99 to 9.45) | NA | 1 | 3.23 (−2.99 to 9.45) | 1 | 3.23 (−2.99 to 9.45) | NA | ||||
| Clearance (reference)‡ | 30 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | 0 | 0.00 | NA | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | ||||
| HPV negative | 115 | 3 | 2.86 (−0.36 to 6.07) | NA | 3 | 2.86 (−0.36 to 6.07) | NA | 2 | 2.00 (−2.00 to 4.76) | 2 | 2.00 (−2.00 to 4.76) | NA | ||||
| Negative cytology | ||||||||||||||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence | 162 | 16 | 11.47 (6.15 to 16.79) | 8.24 (2.44 to 27.83) | 20 | 23.22 (9.00 to 37.44) | 12.38 (3.92 to 39.06) | 12 | 9.12 (4.19 to 14.05) | 16 | 21.18 (6.72 to 35.64) | 43.21 (5.45 to 342.72) | ||||
| Specific genotype persistence | 129 | 16 | 14.50 (7.89 to 21.10) | 8.29 (2.40 to 28.59) | 20 | 28.86 (11.91 to 44.80) | 15.11 (4.87 to 46.90) | 12 | 11.61 (5.42 to 17.80) | 16 | 25.94 (9.11 to 42.77) | 52.92 (6.74 to 415.20) | ||||
| Non-persistence | 33 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| HP 16 persistence | 36 | 10 | 32.76 (15.92 to 49.60) | 23.52 (6.82 to 81.1) | 10 | 32.76 (15.92 to 49.60) | 17.46 (5.81 to 52.45) | 8 | 28.80 (11.89 to 45.72) | 8 | 28.80 (11.89 to 45.72) | 58.76 (7.63 to 452.57) | ||||
| HPV 18 persistence | 9 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence (not 16 and 18) | 117 | 6 | 5.91 (1.31 to 10.51) | 4.25 (1.08 to 16.68) | 10 | 20.25 (3.76 to 36.74) | 10.79 (3.04 to 38.37) | 4 | 4.08 (0.16 to 8.00) | 8 | 18.70 (2.03 to 35.36) | 38.14 (4.45 to 327.05) | ||||
| Acquisition | 88 | 3 | 3.69 (−0.44 to 7.81) | 2.65 (0.54 to 12.95) | 4 | 5.01 (0.20 to 9.82) | 2.67 (0.68 to 10.47) | 1 | 1.14 (−1.08 to 3.35) | 1 | 2.49 (−0.93 to 5.91) | 5.08 (0.47 to 55.45) | ||||
| Clearance (reference)‡ | 236 | 3 | 1.39 (−0.18 to 2.96) | 1.00 | 4 | 1.88 (0.05 to 3.70) | 1.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.49 (−0.47 to 1.45) | 1.00 | ||||
| HPV negative | 1449 | 4 | 0.32 (0.01 to 0.64) | 0.23 (0.05 to 1.03) | 4 | 0.32 (0.01 to 0.64) | 0.17 (0.04 to 0.68) | 2 | 0.16 (−0.06 to 0.39) | 2 | 0.16 (−0.06 to 0.39) | 0.33 (0.03 to 3.63) | ||||
ASCUS=atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance.
*Cumulative incidence rates.
†Cumulative incidence rate ratio; when no events of CIN II+ occurred in reference group, this could not be calculated (NA).
‡Women who tested positive and then negative for carcinogenic HPV (“clearance”).