Table 6.
Three year and 5 year cumulative incidence rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or more severe (CIN II+) and CIN III+ after repeat measurements of carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) at about 1 year interval (9-21 months) according to whether women underwent colposcopy during time interval
| No of women | CIN II+ | CIN III+ | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 year | 5 year | 3 year | 5 year | ||||||||||||
| No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | No of cases | Rate* (95% CI) | Rate ratio† (95% CI) | |||||
| Colposcopy | |||||||||||||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence | 144 | 27 | 21.56 (14.28 to 28.84) | 11.31 (3.50 to 36.54) | 28 | 22.48 (15.07 to 29.89) | 11.80 (3.66 to 38.02) | 17 | 14.37 (7.97 to 20.78) | 18 | 15.38 (8.75 to 22.01) | NA | |||
| Specific genotype persistence | 115 | 27 | 27.14 (18.28 to 35.99) | 14.24 (4.42 to 45.85) | 28 | 28.35 (19.33 to 37.38) | 14.88 (4.63 to 47.79) | 17 | 18.38 (10.34 to 26.41) | 18 | 19.74 (11.40 to 28.07) | NA | |||
| Non-persistence | 29 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | |||
| HP 16 persistence | 35 | 11 | 37.45 (19.58 to 55.33) | 19.65 (5.80 to 66.58) | 11 | 37.45 (19.58 to 55.33) | 19.65 (5.80 to 66.58) | 7 | 26.79 (9.38 to 44.20) | 7 | 26.79 (9.38 to 44.20) | NA | |||
| HPV 18 persistence | 11 | 3 | 27.27 (0.95 to 53.59) | 14.31 (3.26 to 62.90) | 3 | 27.27 (0.95 to 53.59) | 14.31 (3.26 to 62.90) | 1 | 9.09 (−7.90 to 26.08) | 1 | 9.09 (−7.90 to 26.08) | NA | |||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence (not 16 and 18) | 98 | 13 | 15.55 (7.73 to 23.36) | 8.16 (2.38 to 27.91) | 14 | 16.87 (8.76 to 24.97) | 8.85 (2.61 to 30.02) | 9 | 11.00 (4.17 to 17.82) | 10 | 12.39 (5.15 to 19.63) | NA | |||
| Acquisition | 79 | 2 | 2.53 (−0.93 to 6.00) | 1.33 (0.23 to 7.80) | 3 | 4.16 (−0.49 to 8.80) | 2.18 (0.45 to 10.63) | 2 | 2.53 (−0.93 to 6.00) | 3 | 4.16 (−0.49 to 8.80) | NA | |||
| Clearance (reference)‡ | 170 | 3 | 1.91 (−0.23 to 4.05) | 1.00 | 3 | 1.91 (−0.23 to 4.05) | 1.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | |||
| HPV negative | 985 | 5 | 0.58 (0.07 to 1.09) | 0.30 (0.07 to 1.26) | 5 | 0.58 (0.07 to 1.09) | 0.30 (0.07 to 1.26) | 4 | 0.46 (0.01 to 0.91) | 4 | 0.46 (0.01 to 0.91) | NA | |||
| No colposcopy | |||||||||||||||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence | 116 | 11 | 11.14 (4.85 to 17.42) | NA | 14 | 25.73 (7.64 to 43.81) | 25.21 (3.17 to 200.37) | 7 | 7.30 (2.02 to 12.57) | 10 | 22.51 (3.93 to 41.10) | 22.06 (2.65 to 183.37) | |||
| Specific genotype persistence | 94 | 11 | 13.79 (6.11 to 21.46) | NA | 14 | 33.98 (10.10 to 57.86) | 33.30 | 7 | 9.13 (2.58 to 15.67) | 10 | 30.41 (5.50 to 55.31) | 29.80 (3.59 to 247.02) | |||
| Non-persistence | 22 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| HPV 16 persistence | 20 | 8 | 45.36 (21.77 to 68.94) | NA | 8 | 45.36 (21.77 to 68.94) | 44.45 (5.91 to 334.45) | 6 | 35.71 (12.44 to 58.99) | 6 | 35.71 (12.44 to 58.99) | 35.00 (4.48 to 273.52) | |||
| HPV 18 persistence | 7 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| Carcinogenic HPV persistence (not 16 and 18) | 89 | 3 | 3.66 (−0.44 to 7.76) | NA | 6 | 20.92 (0.49 to 41.34) | 20.50 (2.32 to 181.49) | 1 | 1.12 (−1.07 to 3.31) | 4 | 18.83 (−1.92 to 39.59) | 18.46 (1.97 to 173.34) | |||
| Acquisition | 46 | 2 | 4.97 (−1.01 to 11.74) | NA | 2 | 4.97 (−1.01 to 11.74) | 4.87 (0.45 to 52.59) | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| Clearance (reference)† | 112 | 0 | 0.00 | NA | 1 | 1.02 (−0.97 to 3.01) | 1.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1.02 (−0.97 to 3.01) | 1.00 | |||
| HPV negative | 630 | 2 | 0.35 (−0.14 to 0.83) | NA | 2 | 0.35 (−0.14 to 0.83) | 0.34 (0.03 to 3.75) | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
*Cumulative incidence rates.
†Cumulative incidence rate ratio; when no events of CIN II+ occurred in reference group, this could not be calculated (NA).
‡Women who tested positive and then negative for carcinogenic HPV (“clearance”).