Table 1.
Cumulative number of TB cases and TB-related deaths prevented between 2015 and 2050 by using different novel interventions with various strategies in the Southeast Asia region
| Intervention strategy | Prevented active TB cases, millions (%) | Prevented TB-related deaths, millions (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Portfolio interventions | ||
| Vaccination | ||
| Neonatal vaccination with adolescent boost | ||
| Basic pre-exposure vaccine only | 18.2 (18) | 3.0 (17) |
| Basic pre-exposure vaccine with the additional effects | 23.8 (23) | 3.9 (22) |
| Active disease treatment regimens | ||
| 1. 4 months | 8.3 (8) | 2.0 (11) |
| 2. 2 months + 90% efficacy against drug-resistant strains | 19.3 (19) | 4.5 (25) |
| 3. 10 days + 90% efficacy against drug-resistant strains | 22.9 (23) | 5.3 (30) |
| Diagnostics | ||
| LED | 11.7 (12) | 4.2 (23) |
| NAAT | 24.4 (24) | 4.2 (23) |
| Dipstick | 39.4 (39) | 8.0 (45) |
| Combination | ||
| Neonatal vaccination with basic pre-exposure effects plus active- disease regimen 2 plus NAAT | 55.3 (54) | 10.4 (58) |
| Nonportfolio strategies and combinations | ||
| Mass vaccination (includes neonatal vaccination) | ||
| Basic pre-exposure vaccine only | 68.2 (67) | 11.5 (64) |
| Basic pre-exposure vaccine with the additional effects | 74.0 (73) | 12.4 (69) |
| Neonatal vaccination with 3-year mass catch-up, basic pre-exposure vaccine with additional effects | 67.9 (67) | 11.4 (64) |
| Mass vaccination with only a postexposure effect | 30.1 (30) | 5.0 (28) |
| Neonatal vaccination, basic pre-exposure with additional effects, plus mass vaccination with postexposure effect | 73.2 (72) | 12.3 (69) |
| Mass vaccination with basic pre-exposure vaccine, plus mass vaccination with postexposure effect | 80.2 (79) | 13.5 (75) |
| Mass vaccination with basic pre-exposure vaccine with additional effects, plus mass vaccination with postexposure effect | 85.9 (84) | 14.5 (81) |
| Neonatal vaccination with 3-year mass catch-up, basic pre-exposure with additional effects, plus mass vaccination with postexposure effect | 83.8 (82) | 14.1 (79) |
| Mass latent therapy | 64.8 (64) | 10.8 (60) |
| Active-disease regimen 2 plus mass latent therapy | 75.6 (74) | 13.1 (73) |
| Mass vaccination with basic pre-exposure effects plus 2-month active disease treatment regimen 2 plus NAAT | 77.8 (76) | 13.9 (78) |
| Neonatal vaccination with 3-year mass catch-up with basic pre-exposure effects plus active-disease regimen 2 plus NAAT | 73.5 (72) | 13.2 (74) |
Without novel intervention, cumulative incidence for 2015–2050 is 101.7 million active TB cases and 17.9 million TB-related deaths.