Figure 3.

Age-adjusted [to the US standard million (21)] incidence of prostate cancer in men aged 50–84 years as observed in SEER 9 and predicted by each of the models. Predicted incidence is separated into screen-detected (SD) and clinically diagnosed (CD) components. A) The MISCAN model. B) The FHCRC model. C) The UMich model. SEER 9 = the nine core catchment areas in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of the National Cancer Institute; MISCAN = microsimulation screening analysis model based on ERSPC Rotterdam, calibrated to SEER 9 incidence; FHCRC = microsimulation model developed at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, explicitly linking PSA levels and prostate cancer development; UMich = analytic model developed by A. Tsodikov (University of Michigan); PSA = prostate-specific antigen; ERSPC = European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.