Figure 5.

Age-adjusted [to the US standard million (21)] incidence of prostate cancer in men aged 50–84 years as observed in SEER 9 and predicted by the calibrated* and uncalibrated† MISCAN models. *Model calibrated to SEER 9 incidence, with risk of clinical diagnosis and test sensitivity estimated from SEER 9 incidence. †Original, uncalibrated model with parameters estimated from incidence in the Netherlands in 1991 and cancer rates observed in the Rotterdam section of ERSPC. SEER 9 = the nine core catchment areas in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of the National Cancer Institute; ERSPC = European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer; MISCAN = microsimulation screening analysis.