Table 2.

PSA screening and the diagnosis of prostate cancer in the SEER 9 population aged 50–84 years from 1985 to 2000 inclusive, as predicted by the calibrated (SEER) and uncalibrated (ERSPC) MISCAN models^*

Group	Item	MISCAN SEER†	MISCAN ERSPC‡
A	No. of screening tests	7 919 110	7 799 540
B	No. of men diagnosed with PC§	238 720	276 615
C	No. of screen-detected cancers	106 061	208 763
	% of group A	1.3	2.7
	% of group B	44.4	75.5
D	No. of overdiagnosed cancers	44 499	137 903
	% of group B	18.6	49.9
	% of group C	42.0	66.1
E	Lead time, y
	Non-overdiagnosed cancers, mean	6.9	7.9
	Censored, mean	7.8	9.4
	Uncensored, median	10.0	19.0

^*PSA = prostate-specific antigen; PC = prostate cancer; SEER 9 = the nine core catchment areas in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of the National Cancer Institute; ERSPC = European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer; MISCAN = microsimulation screening analysis.

^†The MISCAN model calibrated to SEER 9 incidence from 1985 (before the PSA era) through 2000. This model uses rates of clinical diagnosis and test sensitivities estimated from SEER 9 incidence.

^‡The uncalibrated MISCAN model with parameters estimated from cancer incidence in the Netherlands before the PSA era (1991) and ERSPC Rotterdam trial results.

^§Observed number of men diagnosed with prostate cancer = 235 112.