Table 1.

Baseline Assumptions

Parameter	Base-Case Estimates	Sensitivity Range Tested
Proportion of patients adherent to different No. of medications under current coverage
0 drugs	0.07	*
1 drugs	0.27
2 drugs	0.32
3 drugs	0.25
4 drugs	0.09
Proportion of patients adherent to different No. of medications under full coverage
0 drugs	0.001	0–0.07
1 drugs	0.07	0–0.27
2 drugs	0.29	0.08–0.32
3 drugs	0.42	0.25–0.44
4 drugs	0.22	0.09–0.48
Annual event rates in patients receiving no drug therapy
Reinfarction	0.4–0.06†	25%–200% of base-case estimates
Stroke	0.02–0.03
CHF	0.10–0.23
Event rate ratios with drug treatment
Reinfarction	0.65–0.16‡	25%–200% of base-case estimates
Stroke	0.26–0.76
CHF	0.43–0.83
Ratio of outpatient to inpatient CHD deaths§	1.4	…
Non-CHD background mortality§	0.01	…
Excess mortality rate associated with CHD	0.02	…
Event-related mortality rates§
Reinfarction	0.05	25%–200% of base-case estimates
Stroke	0.04
CHF	0.03
Average cost for 1-year supply of 1 drug,$	212	50–1000
Proportion of drug cost faced by patients under usual coverage	0.63	0.1–0.9
Event costs, $
MI (nonfatal)	16 563	25%–200% of base-case estimates
MI (fatal)	14 494
Stroke (nonfatal)	13 878
Stroke (fatal)	9414
CHF admission (nonfatal)	10 241
CHF admission (fatal)	8782
Non-CHD death	10 063
Subsequent CHD-related care costs, $‖
Baseline§	2231	…
Incremental cost associated with MI history	2430
Incremental cost associated with stroke history	14 011
Incremental cost associated with CHF	3507
Utility weights
MI	0.88	0.78–0.90
Stroke	0.64	0.39–0.85
CHF	0.80	0.71–0.89
Discount rate	0.03	0–0.05

^*Not tested.

^†Varies by year. See text for details.

^‡Varies by number of drugs used. Increasing drug use results in small rate ratios. See text for details.

^§Vary by age. Values presented are for a 65-year-old patient.

^‖Costs are additive in the case of multiple conditions.