Fig. 5.

Model fingerprints of externally forced changes in water vapor over near-global oceans. Fingerprints were estimated from 12 different 10-member sets of model 20CEN simulations, as described in Fig. 6 and the SI Appendix. The fingerprint is the leading EOF of the multimodel average change in water vapor over the 20th century. The first four fingerprints (A–D) were estimated from the top 10 (TT) and bottom 10 (BT) models, with nonparametric (N) and parametric (P) rankings based on the M+AC metrics (see Fig. 4). The fingerprints in E–H were estimated from models ranked with the VA+VP pattern statistics. The final four fingerprints (I–L) were calculated from models ranked with a combination of mean state, annual cycle, and variability metrics (ALL). All fingerprint calculations were performed on a common 10° × 10° latitude/longitude grid. The variance explained by the leading mode ranges from 88.3% to 94.0%.