TABLE 4.
Statistics on the posterior distributions of the demographic parameters
Parameter | Mode | Mean | Median | 95% C.I. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
α | −10.02 | 24.18 | 13.68 | −44.33–222.51 | |
t = 300 YA | β | 1.71 | 2.38 | 1.75 | 0.38–4.7 |
θ × 103 | 0.00077 | 0.00072 | 0.00073 | 0.00021–0.00119 | |
α | 3.55 | 4.33 | 3.9 | −0.87–10.33 | |
t = 10,000 YA | β | 2.2 | 5.29 | 3.62 | 0.029–16.75 |
θ × 103 | 0.00116 | 0.00109 | 0.0011 | 0.00093–0.0012 |
The five summary statistics (S, K, π, H, and Dt) were computed from 1 million simulations at both times (bottleneck occurring 300 or 10,000 years ago) and then compared to the observed data. The 1000 scenarios that best fit the data were kept to estimate the posterior distributions.