Table 3.
Influence of different treatment thresholds on number of people for whom treatment is recommended and number of disease events averted. Values are numbers (percentages); n is the number of Auckland residents in each age group
| Age group (years)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35-49 (n=195 696) | 50-64 (n=117 132) | 65-79 (n=77 664) | Total | |
| Baseline case (no drug treatment) | ||||
| Disease events in 5 years if no treatment | 4 360 | 9 751 | 13 257 | 27 368 |
| Current guidelines for drug treatment* | ||||
| People currently treated | 6 080 (3.1) | 17 246 (14.7) | 23 048 (29.7) | 46 374 (11.9) |
| Disease events in 5 years | 4 297 | 9 241 | 12 141 | 25 679 |
| Events averted compared with no treatment | 63 (1.4) | 510 (5.2) | 1 116 (8.4) | 1 689 (6.2) |
| 10% threshold for drug treatment† | ||||
| People who would stop treatment | 5 519 (2.8) | 5 942 (5.1) | 1 760 (2.3) | 13 221 (3.4) |
| People who would start treatment | 3 457 (1.8) | 12 760 (10.9) | 16 405 (21.1) | 32 622 (8.4) |
| People recommended for treatment | 4 018 (2.1) | 24 064 (20.5) | 37 693 (48.5) | 65 775 (16.8) |
| Overall change in number eligible for treatment | −2 062 (−1.1) | 6 818 (5.8) | 14 645 (18.9) | 19 401 (5.0) |
| Disease events caused by stopping treatment | 58 | 119 | 48 | 225 |
| Disease events averted by starting treatment | 70 | 442 | 852 | 1 364 |
| Overall reduction in disease events | 12 (0.3) | 323 (3.5) | 804 (6.6) | 1 139 (4.4) |
| 15% threshold for drug treatment† | ||||
| People who would stop treatment | 5 519 (2.8) | 9 464 (8.1) | 5 356 (6.9) | 20 339 (5.2) |
| People who would start treatment | 3 157 (1.6) | 8 765 (7.5) | 13 014 (16.8) | 24 936 (6.4) |
| People recommended for treatment | 3 718 (1.9) | 16 547 (14.1) | 30 706 (39.5) | 50 971 (13.1) |
| Overall change in number eligible for treatment | −2 362 (−1.2) | −699 (−0.6) | 7 658 (9.9) | 4 597 (1.2) |
| Disease events caused by stopping treatment | 58 | 252 | 199 | 509 |
| Disease events averted by starting treatment | 68 | 320 | 741 | 1 129 |
| Overall reduction in disease events | 10 (0.2) | 68 (0.7) | 542 (4.5) | 620 (2.4) |
| 20% threshold for drug treatment† | ||||
| People who would stop treatment | 5 519 (2.8) | 11 471 (9.8) | 7 078 (9.1) | 24 068 (6.2) |
| People who would start treatment | 2 864 (1.5) | 6 333 (5.4) | 10 156 (13.1) | 19 353 (5.0) |
| People recommended for treatment | 3 425 (1.8) | 12 108 (10.3) | 26 126 (33.6) | 41 659 (10.7) |
| Overall change in number eligible for treatment | −2 655 (−1.4) | −5 138 (−4.4 ) | 3 078 (4.0) | −4 715 (−1.2) |
| Disease events caused by stopping treatment | 58 | 345 | 300 | 703 |
| Disease events averted by starting treatment | 64 | 229 | 614 | 907 |
| Overall reduction in disease events | 6 (0.1) | −116 (−1.3 ) | 314 (2.6) | 204 (0.8) |
*
Compared with no treatment.
†
Compared with current treatment.