Figure 1. Reductions in HIV incidence by coverage level.

This figure shows model estimates for the reduction in HIV incidence 10 y after the programme begins, among circumcised men, women, uncircumcised men, and the population overall, at varying levels of circumcision uptake (from a baseline of 0%). The model [15] is a deterministic compartmental simulation of the heterosexual spread of HIV in a sex- and sexual-activity stratified population, parameterised for Southern and Eastern African populations. The model assumes that there is a 60% reduction in female-to-male transmission for circumcised men, that there is no direct reduction in male-to-female transmission from circumcised men, and that 5%, 20%, 35%, 50%, 70%, and 90% of men are circumcised within 10 y of the intervention being scaled-up. Note: Since the fraction of men circumcised increases over time, the weighted-average of reductions in incidence in these demographic groups at year 10 is not expected to equal the reduction in incidence in the whole population over the first 10 y of the intervention.