Table 5.
Middle Childhood Multivariate Prediction Models of Adolescent Offending Persistence and Seriousness Combining Risk and Promotive Factors
| B(SE) | Wald | p | Odds (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serious persisters / moderate persisters | ||||
| Promotive | ||||
| No perinatal problems | 0.900(0.343) | 6.893 | 0.009 | 2.5 (1.3–4.6) |
| Risk | ||||
| High frequency of offending | 1.331(0.392) | 11.510 | 0.001 | 3.8 (1.8–8.2) |
| Low estimated likelihood of getting caught | −1.167(0.406) | 8.283 | 0.004 | 0.31 (0.14–0.69) |
| High parental stress | 0.752(0.382) | 3.869 | 0.049 | 2.1 (1.0–4.5) |
| Poor housing quality | −0.840(0.373) | 5.701 | 0.024 | 0.43 (0.21–0.90) |
| Overall model: χ2 29.389(5), p 0.000, Nagelkerke R2 0.209 | ||||
| Serious persisters / desisters | ||||
| Promotive | ||||
| High involvement in family activities | 1.460(0.458) | 10.143 | 0.001 | 4.3 (1.8–10.6) |
| Few children in the home | 1.263(0.640) | 3.890 | 0.049 | 3.5 (1.0–12.4) |
| Risk | ||||
| Truant | 1.216(0.506) | 5.765 | 0.016 | 3.4 (1.3–9.1) |
| Low likelihood getting caught | −1.266(0.485) | 6.816 | 0.009 | 0.28 (0.11–0.73) |
| High physical aggression | 1.279(0.513) | 6.230 | 0.013 | 3.6 (1.3–9.8) |
| Two or more prenatal problems | −0.902(0.435) | 3.771 | 0.052 | 0.41 (0.17–0.95) |
| Overall model: χ2 36.910(6), p 0.000, Nagelkerke R2 0.323 | ||||
| Moderate persisters / desisters | ||||
| Promotive | ||||
| Good relationship with peers | 1.227(0.482) | 6.471 | 0.011 | 3.4 (1.3–8.8) |
| Low physical punishment | −1.036(0.528) | 3.847 | 0.050 | 0.36 (0.13–1.00) |
| High involvement of boy in family Activities | 1.077(0.425) | 6.407 | 0.011 | 2.9 (1.3–6.8) |
| No perinatal problems | −1.223(.388) | 9.949 | 0.002 | 0.29 (0.14–0.63) |
| Risk | ||||
| Serious injuries | 1.630(0.684) | 5.677 | 0.017 | 5.1 (1.3–19.5) |
| Poor housing quality | 0.9359(0.422) | 4.914 | 0.027 | 2.5 (1.1–5.8) |
| Overall model: χ2 39.588(6), p 0.000, Nagelkerke R2 0.292 | ||||