Table 3.
Immunologic response at 12 months and subsequent risk of mortality in Lusaka, Zambia
| Crude HR (95% CI) | Adjusted HR (95% CI)* | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute change in CD4+ cell count from baseline | N = 17,920 | N = 15,727 | ||
| Below baseline | n = 1,452 | 4.56 (2.68 – 7.78) | n = 1,303 | 6.55 (3.63 – 11.82) |
| 0 – 49 cells/μL | n = 1,513 | 3.65 (2.11 – 6.29) | n = 1,335 | 3.53 (1.93 – 6.47) |
| 50 – 99 cells/μL | n = 2,355 | 2.67 (1.56 – 4.54) | n = 2,108 | 2.44 (1.36 – 4.38) |
| 100 – 199 cells/μL | n = 5,379 | 2.02 (1.22 – 3.34) | n = 4,732 | 1.74 (1.00 – 3.03) |
| 200 – 299 cells/μL | n = 3,651 | 1.15 (0.66 – 2.01) | n = 3,188 | 0.95 (0.51 – 1.76) |
| 300 – 399 cells/μL | n = 1,904 | 1.39 (0.76 – 2.52) | n = 1,638 | 1.25 (0.65 – 2.42) |
| ≥ 400 cells/μL | n = 1,666 | 1.0 | n = 1,423 | 1.0 |
| CD4+ cell count in relation to baseline | N = 17,920 | N = 15,727 | ||
| > 20% below baseline | n = 813 | 2.97 (2.10 – 4.21) | n = 733 | 4.75 (3.23 – 6.97) |
| > 10% to ≤ 20% below baseline | n = 290 | 2.13 (1.10 – 4.14) | n = 269 | 3.20 (1.55 – 6.60) |
| ≤ 10% below to < 10% above baseline | n = 845 | 1.63 (1.05 – 2.54) | n = 747 | 2.50 (1.56 – 4.01) |
| ≥ 10% to < 20% above baseline | n = 472 | 1.14 (0.57 – 2.31) | n = 416 | 1.73 (0.80 – 3.71) |
| ≥ 20% above baseline | n = 15,500 | 1.0 | n = 13,562 | 1.0 |
| Absolute CD4+ cell count at 6 months | N = 17,920 | N = 15,727 | ||
| < 100 cells/μL | n =761 | 5.53 (4.09 – 7.48) | n = 672 | 5.35 (3.79 – 7.55) |
| 100 – 149 cells/μL | n = 1,365 | 2.82 (2.07 – 3.85) | n = 1,209 | 2.85 (2.01 – 4.04) |
| 150 – 199 cells/μL | n = 2,073 | 1.62 (1.17 – 2.24) | n = 1,836 | 1.61 (1.12 – 2.31) |
| ≥ 200 cells/μL | n = 13,721 | 1.0 | n = 12,010 | 1.0 |
| Drop from peak CD4+ cell count (analysis limited to patients with ≥ 3 values) | N = 15,092 | N = 13,269 | ||
| ≥ 50% drop from peak | n = 947 | 3.14 (2.23 – 4.42) | n = 836 | 3.23 (2.23 – 4.67) |
| 30% – 49% drop from peak | n = 1,624 | 1.31 (0.89 – 1.94) | n = 1,432 | 1.33 (0.87 – 2.05) |
| < 30% drop from peak | n = 4,141 | 1.02 (0.75 – 1.38) | n = 3,678 | 1.19 (0.87 – 1.65) |
| No drop from peak | n = 8,380 | 1.0 | n = 7,323 | 1.0 |
*
Model adjusted for age, gender, WHO stage at ART initiation, tuberculosis co-infection status, baseline hemoglobin, adherence behavior, and initial ART regimen. Each criterion for immunologic response was modeled separately.