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. 2009 Jul 17;40(6):57. doi: 10.1051/vetres/2009040

Table II.

Input parameters used to model BTV-8 surveillance using stochastic scenario trees. The SSC considered are: SEROFARM = individual blood serology on farm; BMT = bulk milk testing on dairy cattle farm; CLIN = passive clinical surveillance in sheep and cattle farms, respectively; ABT = abortion testing.

Description of input parameter Value Source
Design prevalence P*H 0.002 Set arbitrarily
Sensitivity of blood serology for SEROFARM RiskPert (0.99; 0.995; 1.00) Personal opinion (based on data for c-ELISA)
Sensitivity of milk serology for BMT RiskPert (0.99; 0.995; 1.00) Personal opinion (based on data for ID Screen®)
Probability for abortions in cattle due to BTV-8 RiskPert (0.00; 0.016; 0.30) [2]
Probability for clinical symptoms in cattle due to BTV-8 RiskPert (0.039; 0.07; 0.47) [2]
Probability for clinical symptoms in sheep due to BTV-8 RiskPert (0.047; 0.15; 0.48) [2]
Probability that cattle farmer calls veterinarian RiskPert (0.1; 0.2; 0.3) Low estimated disease awareness
Probability that veterinarian suspects BTV-infection in cattle RiskPert (0.1; 0.2; 0.3) Low estimated disease awareness
Probability that sheep farmer calls veterinarian RiskPert (0.1; 0.2; 0.3) Low estimated disease awareness
Probability that veterinarian suspects BTV-infection in sheep RiskPert (0.4; 0.5; 0.6) Medium estimated disease awareness