Table 3.

Posterior means and DICs for Models 1 and 2 each including a Markov model and a logistic regression model for the baseline; 95% credible intervals in parentheses

		Model 1	Model 2
Markov model
Intercepts	β0.12	– 1.496(– 1.795, – 1.221)	– 1.394(– 1.772, – 1.015)
	β0.13	– 4.013(– 5.127, – 3.271)	– 4.342(– 5.716, – 3.420)
	β0.23	– 1.286(– 1.533, – 1.053)	– 1.288(– 1.574, – 1.009)
Age	βa.12	0.086(0.057, 0.115)	0.105(0.066, 0.152)
	βa.13	0.050(– 0.028, 0.147)	0.057(– 0.035, 0.167)
	βa.23	0.027(0.005, 0.054)	0.043(0.010, 0.079)
Sex	βs.12	– 0.571(– 0.970, – 0.174)	– 0.590(– 1.098, – 0.091)
	βs.13	0†	0†
	βs.23	– 0.361(– 0.682, – 0.038)	– 0.427(– 0.809, – 0.059)
Duration	βd.12	0.069 (0.027, 0.111)	0.080 (0.029, 0.136)
	βd.13	0†	0†
	βd.23	0†	0†
Random effect	σ0.12		0.650 (0.350, 1.111)
	σ0.13		0.748 (0.349, 1.583)
	σ0.23		0.436 (0.280, 0.653)
	σa		0.047 (0.030, 0.071)
Logistic regression model
Intercept	α0	– 0.914(– 1.255, – 0.584)	– 0.912(– 1.261, – 0.581)
Age	αa	0.166(0.112, 0.224)	0.165(0.112, 0.225)
Sex	αs	0†	0†
Duration	αd	0.047(– 0.009, 0.104)	0.047(– 0.008, 0.103)

^†Restricted to zero.