Table 3.
Cox Regression Models Predicting Death at One-Year
| Model | Predictor | HR (95% CI) | p-value | C-index (95% CI) | C-index improvementc | IDIc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascites only | Ascitesa | 6.08 (3.62–10.19) | <0.0005 | 0.653 (0.58–0.72) | - | - |
| MELD only | MELD | 1.21 (1.16–1.26) | <0.0005 | 0.730 (0.66–0.80) | - | - |
| MELDNa only | MELDNa | 1.22 (1.17–1.27) | <0.0005 | 0.770 (0.70–0.83) | - | - |
| MELDNa + Ascites | MELDNa | 1.24 (1.18–1.29) | <0.0005 | 0.804 (0.75–0.85) | 3.4% (p=0.036) | 1.8% (p=0.016) |
| Ascitesb | 1.20 (1.11–1.30) | <0.0005 |
a
Ascites coded as a binary predictor.
b
Linear spline, equal to 21-MELDNa for patients with ascites and MELDNa scores < 21, and zero for all other patients.
c
The improvement in model performance compares a MELDNa model against MELDNa + Ascites