Table 4.
California SimSmoke Predictions and Data Estimates of Adult (ages 18+) Smoking Prevalence, 1988-2004
| Years | Model Prediction | Model % Change* | CTS | CTS % Change* | TUS** | TUS % Change* | BRFSS | BRFSS % Change* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 25.5% | 22.7% | ||||||
| 1989 | 24.0% | 21.1% | ||||||
| 1990 | 22.0% | -13.6% (88-90) | 22.0% | 19.4% | -14.5% (88-90) | |||
| 1991 | 21.5% | 19.2% | ||||||
| 1992 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 20.0% | |||||
| 1993 | 20.8% | -5.5% (90-93) | 22.0% | -8.2% (90-93) | 19.7% | 18.2% | -6.2% (90-93) | |
| 1994 | 20.5% | 16.6% | ||||||
| 1995 | 19.7% | 19.1% | 15.9% | |||||
| 1996 | 19.3% | -7.0% (93-96) | 20.2% | -10.4% (93-96) | 19.1% | -3.3% (93-96) | 17.8% | *** |
| 1997 | 18.9% | 17.4% | ||||||
| 1998 | 18.4% | 18.1% | 17.5% | |||||
| 1999 | 17.1% | -11.7% (96-99) | 18.1% | -3.3% (96-99) | 16.8% | -12.2% (96-99) | 17.1% | -3.9% (96-99) |
| 2000 | 16.6% | 16.3% | ||||||
| 2001 | 16.1% | 15.1% | 16.4% | |||||
| 2002 | 15.8% | -7.8% (99-02) | 17.5% | -12.0% (99-02) | 14.8% | -11.7% (99-02) | 15.8% | -7.6% (99-02) |
| 2003 | 15.5% | 15.4% | ||||||
| 2004 | 15.1% | -3.8% (02-04) | 14.6% | -7.3% (02-04) |
*
% change estimated relative to the initial year (e.g. (1996-1993)/1993). The years over which the percentage change are estimated appear in parentheses
**
CPS-TUS data for 1992, 1995, and 1998 are from the September survey of that year, while the data for 1993, 1996 and 1999 are from the January and May surveys of that year. For 2001, the surveys were conducted in June and November and for 2002 in February.
***
We do not include calculate percentage changes from the BRFSS between 1993 and 1996 because of a definition change in the survey that led to the inclusion of more some day smokers.