Table 5.
California SimSmoke Predictions of Adults (aged 18 and over) Smoking Prevalence with and without Tobacco Control Policies, 1988-2010
| Year | With actual Policies | With policies at their 1988 level | With price changes only | With clean air laws only | With only media policies | With only youth access policies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 25.5% | 25.5% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| 1989 | 24.0% | 25.2% | 24.3% | 25.2% | 25.1% | 25.2% |
| 1990 | 22.0% | 24.9% | 23.7% | 24.9% | 23.3% | 24.9% |
| % change 88-90 | -13.6% | -2.4% | -7.2% | -2.4% | -8.7% | -2.4% |
| 1991 | 21.5% | 24.5% | 23.1% | 24.5% | 23.0% | 24.5% |
| 1992 | 21.1% | 24.1% | 22.7% | 24.1% | 22.6% | 24.1% |
| 1993 | 20.8% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 23.7% | 22.2% | 23.8% |
| % change 90-93 | -5.5% | -4.5% | -5.4% | -4.8% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 1994 | 20.5% | 23.4% | 22.0% | 23.2% | 21.8% | 23.4% |
| 1995 | 19.7% | 23.0% | 21.6% | 22.3% | 21.6% | 23.0% |
| 1996 | 19.3% | 22.6% | 21.2% | 22.0% | 21.3% | 22.6% |
| % change 93-96 | -7.0% | -4.9% | -5.1% | -7.2% | -4.3% | -4.9% |
| 1997 | 18.9% | 22.2% | 20.8% | 21.6% | 20.1% | 22.2% |
| 1998 | 18.4% | 21.8% | 20.3% | 21.2% | 19.8% | 21.8% |
| 1999 | 17.1% | 21.5% | 18.9% | 20.8% | 19.5% | 21.4% |
| % change 96-99 | -11.7% | -5.0% | -11.1% | -5.1% | -8.4% | -5.2% |
| 2000 | 16.6% | 21.1% | 18.4% | 20.5% | 19.2% | 21.1% |
| 2001 | 16.1% | 20.8% | 17.9% | 20.2% | 18.9% | 20.7% |
| 2002 | 15.8% | 20.5% | ||||
| 2003 | 15.5% | 20.2% | 17.2% | 19.6% | 18.4% | 20.1% |
| 2004 | 15.1% | 19.9% | 16.9% | 19.3% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| % change 99-04 | -11.4% | -7.1% | -10.5% | -7.2% | -6.9% | -7.5% |
| % change 88-04 | -40.6% | -21.8% | -33.8% | -24.1% | -28.9% | -22.3% |
| 2005 | 14.7% | 19.7% | 16.6% | 19.1% | 17.9% | 19.5% |
| 2010 | 13.5% | 18.5% | 15.3% | 17.9% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| % change 04-10 | -10.9% | -7.2% | -9.6% | -7.3% | -7.0% | -7.7% |