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. 2000 Aug 12;321(7258):405–412. doi: 10.1136/bmj.321.7258.405

Table 2.

Incidence of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes by category of updated mean haemoglobin A1c concentration (%). Rates per 1000 person years' follow up adjusted in Poisson regression model to white men aged 50 to 54 years at diagnosis of diabetes and followed up for 7.5 to <12.5 years, termed “10 years” (n=4585)

<6% 6% to <7% 7% to <8% 8% to <9% 9% to <10% ⩾10%
Aggregate end points
 Complications related to diabetes:
 Events/person years 229/9195 391/11 432 369/8464 268/5605 159/2542 88/1334
 Unadjusted rate 24.9 34.2 43.6 47.8 62.5 65.9
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 35.9 (29.9 to 43.1) 48.7 (41.3 to 57.3) 65.5 (55.5 to 77.2) 74.5 (62.6 to 88.8) 103.2 (84.2 to 126.5) 124.9 (97.3 to 160.3)
Deaths related to diabetes:
 Events/person years 56/10 113 101/13 143 116/10 054 84/6595 47/3137 19/1537
 Unadjusted rate 5.5 7.7 11.5 12.7 15.0 12.4
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 8.9 (6.3 to 12.7) 12.0 (8.9 to 16.3) 19.9 (14.8 to 26.7) 23.5 (17.2 to 32.0) 29.5 (20.4 to 42.6) 33.0 (19.8 to 55.1)
All cause mortality:
 Events/person years 112/10 113 207/13 143 188/10 054 123/6595 64/3137 26/1537
 Unadjusted rate 11.1 15.8 18.7 18.7 20.4 16.9
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 17.0 (13.1 to 22.0) 23.3 (18.5 to 29.2) 30.0 (23.8 to 37.7) 31.8 (24.7 to 40.8) 37.0 (27.3 to 50.2) 40.7 (26.5 to 64.5)
Fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction:
 Events/person years 100/9870 163/12 590 159/9579 101/6331 60/3016 23/1490
 Unadjusted rate 10.1 13.0 16.6 16.0 19.9 15.4
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 16.0 (12.1 to 21.2) 20.8 (16.2 to 26.7) 29.2 (22.8 to 37.4) 30.0 (22.9 to 39.4) 39.6 (28.8 to 54.5) 38.6 (24.4 to 61.0)
Fatal or non-fatal stroke:
 Events/person years 32/9916 67/12 869 59/9822 32/6424 13/3062 9/1509
 Unadjusted rate 3.2 5.2 6.0 5.0 4.2 6.0
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 4.3 (2.6 to 7.0) 6.6 (4.4 to 10.1) 8.3 (5.4 to 12.7) 7.4 (4.5 to 11.9) 6.7 (3.5 to 12.7) 12.0 (5.7 to 25.3)
Amputation or death from peripheral vascular disease:
 Events/person years 3/10 018 7/12 993 7/9897 9/6492 15/3061 7/1502
 Unadjusted rate 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 4.9 4.7
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 1.2 (0.4 to 3.2) 1.2 (0.5 to 3.1) 2.6 (1.1 to 5.8) 4.0 (1.8 to 9.0) 10.9 (5.0 to 23.7) 12.2 (4.6 to 32.4)
Fatal or non-fatal microvascular disease:
 Events/person years 38/9814 77/12 707 86/9438 91/6185 73/2855 47/1432
 Unadjusted rate 3.9 6.1 9.1 14.7 25.6 32.8
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 6.1 (4.1 to 9.0) 9.3 (6.7 to 12.9) 14.2 (10.3 to 19.5) 22.8 (16.7 to 31.3) 40.4 (28.9 to 56.5) 57.8 (39.3 to 85.1)
Single end points
 Heart failure:
 Events/person years 17/9967 34/12 928 36/9782 20/6432 10/3062 10/1514
 Unadjusted rate 1.7 2.6 3.7 3.1 3.3 6.6
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 2.3 (1.2 to 4.5) 3.4 (1.9 to 5.8) 5.0 (2.9 to 8.6) 4.4 (2.4 to 8.2) 5.0 (2.3 to 10.6) 11.9 (5.5 to 25.8)
Cataract extraction:
 Events/person years 35/9841 59/12 763 49/9692 45/6355 19/3009 19/1495
 Unadjusted rate 3.6 4.6 5.1 7.1 6.3 12.7
 Adjusted rate (95% CI) 4.1 (2.5 to 6.5) 4.5 (3.0 to 6.9) 4.9 (3.1 to 7.6) 6.9 (4.4 to 10.8) 6.6 (3.8 to 11.6) 14.4 (8.1 to 25.7)

Person years, events, and unadjusted rates are for all patients.