Fig. 1.

Nonlinear relation between temperature and yields. Graphs at the top of each frame display changes in log yield if the crop is exposed for one day to a particular 1° C temperature interval where we sum the fraction of a day during which temperatures fall within each interval. The 95% confidence band, after adjusting for spatial correlation, is added as gray area for the polynomial regression. Curves are centered so that the exposure-weighted impact is zero. Histograms at the bottom of each frame display the average temperature exposure among all counties in the data.