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. 2000 Sep 16;321(7262):670–673. doi: 10.1136/bmj.321.7262.670

Table 1.

Annual heat and cold related mortalities per million population in people aged 65-74 living in warm and cold regions of Europe. Values are given with 95% confidence intervals in parenthesis

North Finland South Finland Netherlands London Baden- Württemberg North Italy Athens Relation to mean summer temperature (P value)
Mean summer temperature (°C) 13.5 14.5 16.1 16.9 17.7 20.7 24.1
3°C band of minimum mortality (°C) 14.3 to 17.3 13.3 to 16.3 17.3 to 20.3 19.3 to 22.3 19.0 to 22.0 16.8 to 19.8 22.7 to 25.7 0.027
Mean daily mortality in 3°C band 70.0
(65.8 to 74.2)
72.9
(70.6 to 75.2)
65.1
(63.7 to 66.4)
69.8
(67.7 to 71.8)
55.5
(54.0 to 57.0)
51.3
(48.7 to 53.9)
56.7
(52.0 to 61.4)
0.040
Heat
 No of days/year warmer than upper limit of minimum mortality band 25 46 18 5 22 89 63 NS
Annual heat related mortality 304***
(126 to 482)
248**
(99 to 396)
53*
(12 to 93)
40**
(13 to 68)
108***
(56 to 159)
325*
(36 to 614)
445*
(59 to 831)
NS
Increase in daily mortality for each °C rise above minimum mortality band 6.2***
(4.0 to 8.4)
1.8***
(1.0 to 2.6)
1.3**
(0.4 to 2.3)
3.6**
(1.5 to 5.8)
1.4**
(0.6 to 2.2)
0.8**
(0.3 to 1.2)
2.7*
(0.9 to 4.6)
NS
Cold
 No of days/year colder than lower limit of minimum mortality band 302 275 312 330 308 230 251 NS
Annual cold related mortality 2457***
(1130 to 3786)
1379***
(692 to 2067)
1345***
(901 to 1788)
3129***
(2319 to 3939)
1936***
(1461 to 2412)
1238***
(535 to 1940)
2533***
(965 to 4101)
NS
Increase in daily mortality for each °C below minimum mortality band 0.58***
(0.48 to 0.68)
0.54***
(0.46 to 0.61)
0.54***
(0.50 to 0.58)
1.25***
(1.17 to 1. 32)
0.53***
(0.49 to 0.57)
0.73***
(0.60 to 0.86)
1.60***
(1.36 to 1.83)
NS
*

P<0.05, **P<0.01, *** P<0.001. 

May to August. 

Excess above mortality in minimum mortality band.