Table 3.

Projected effect of increasing obesity on grade-specific prostate cancer incidence and overall mortality among men ages 40–75 y in 2002

Effect on incidence per 100,000 men
Ages (y)	Low grade			High grade
	Observed	Projected	%Δ	Observed	Projected	%Δ
40–44	7.7	7.8	−1.0	0.9	0.8	12.0
45–49	37.1	37.4	−0.9	5.5	5.0	11.1
50–54	131.5	132.8	−0.9	23.7	21.3	11.1
55–59	324.3	329.4	−1.5	58.3	50.0	16.6
60–64	522.8	531.0	−1.5	101.6	87.1	16.6
65–69	783.7	793.6	−1.3	173.2	149.8	15.6
70–74	884.5	895.7	−1.3	212.2	183.5	15.6
Adjusted	277.1	280.8	−1.3	57.8	50.1	15.5
Effect on mortality per 100,000 men
Ages (y)	Observed	Projected
		General	%Δ	BMI-specific	%Δ
40–44	0.2	0.2	11.1	0.1	58.1
45–49	0.8	0.7	7.5	0.6	28.2
50–54	2.4	2.2	8.2	1.9	25.6
55–59	7.3	6.7	9.1	5.3	37.1
60–64	21.2	19.5	8.5	17.1	23.7
65–69	47.0	43.4	8.4	38.5	22.2
70–74	102.1	96.7	5.6	84.1	21.5
Adjusted	16.9	15.8	7.0	13.7	23.0

NOTE: Projected incidence rates assume constant 1980 obesity prevalence rates and are based on relative risks re-estimated using PCPT data. Projected mortality rates use projected incidence and selected cause-specific and other-cause survival hazard ratios for obese men. General survival uses hazard ratios h^pc = h^oc = 1 for obese men, whereas BMI-specific survival uses h^pc = 2.64 and ( $h_1^{oc},h_2^{oc},h_3^{oc}$) = (1.4, 1.2, 1.1) for obese men in age groups 40–54, 55–64, and 65–74 y.