Table 5.
Sensitivity, specificity, and cumulative incidence of HIV acquisition for risk scores defined by the simple model, Public Health—Seattle & King County repeat testers (2001–2008) and Project Explore control arm (1999–2003).
| PHSKC Repeat Testers (n=1903) | Project Explore Control Arm (n=2081) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score Cutoff |
% of sample |
Sensitivity | Specificity | Cumulative Incidence |
% of sample |
Sensitivity | Specificity | Cumulative Incidence |
| One-Year Estimates | ||||||||
| ≥ 0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 2.0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 2.8% |
| ≥ 1 | 71.3% | 87% | 29% | 2.5% | 71.9% | 86% | 29% | 3.4% |
| ≥ 3 | 64.1% | 82% | 36% | 2.6% | 58.6% | 79% | 42% | 3.8% |
| ≥ 4 | 55.8% | 82% | 45% | 3.0% | 48.2% | 78% | 53% | 4.5% |
| ≥ 5 | 31.3% | 54% | 69% | 3.6% | 36.1% | 57% | 65% | 4.4% |
| ≥ 7 | 25.4% | 50% | 75% | 4.1% | 35.4% | 55% | 65% | 4.4% |
| ≥ 8 | 18.5% | 39% | 82% | 4.5% | 34.7% | 55% | 66% | 4.5% |
| ≥ 11 | 13.5% | 28% | 87% | 4.5% | 33.3% | 52% | 67% | 4.4% |
| ≥ 12 | 11.8% | 27% | 89% | 5.1% | 25.0% | 45% | 76% | 5.1% |
| ≥ 14 | 10.9% | 26% | 90% | 5.4% | 19.6% | 43% | 81% | 6.2% |
| ≥ 15 | 9.3% | 26% | 91% | 5.6% | 13.4% | 38% | 87% | 8.0% |
| ≥ 16 | 11.3% | 23% | 94% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 12% | 98% | 13.9% |
| ≥ 18 | 4.9% | 24% | 95% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 12% | 98% | 17.0% |
| ≥ 19 | 2.9% | 8% | 97% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 11% | 99% | 21.2% |
| Four-Year Estimates | ||||||||
| ≥ 0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.4% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 8.2% |
| ≥ 1 | 71.3% | 83% | 30% | 12.3% | 71.9% | 86% | 29% | 9.8% |
| ≥ 3 | 64.1% | 79% | 38% | 13.0% | 58.6% | 76% | 43% | 10.7% |
| ≥ 4 | 55.8% | 74% | 46% | 14.2% | 48.2% | 70% | 54% | 11.9% |
| ≥ 5 | 31.3% | 48% | 71% | 17.0% | 36.1% | 53% | 65% | 12.0% |
| ≥ 7 | 25.4% | 45% | 77% | 18.1% | 35.4% | 52% | 66% | 12.1% |
| ≥ 8 | 18.5% | 33% | 84% | 21.5% | 34.7% | 51% | 67% | 12.1% |
| ≥ 11 | 13.5% | 30% | 89% | 28.3% | 33.3% | 48% | 68% | 11.8% |
| ≥ 12 | 11.8% | 26% | 91% | 29.4% | 25.0% | 44% | 77% | 14.3% |
| ≥ 14 | 10.9% | 25% | 92% | 30.8% | 19.6% | 40% | 82% | 16.7% |
| ≥ 15 | 9.3% | 21% | 93% | 30.9% | 13.4% | 32% | 88% | 19.3% |
| ≥ 16 | 11.3% | 23% | 95% | 30.3% | 2.5% | 7% | 98% | 23.9% |
| ≥ 18 | 4.9% | 10% | 96% | 32.3% | 2.0% | 5% | 98% | 21.9% |
| ≥ 19 | 2.9% | 5% | 98% | 36.4% | 1.4% | 4% | 99% | 24.8% |