Table 4.

Growth and poverty results, 2002-2025

	KwaZulu-Natal (KZN)			Other South Africa (Other SA)
	Initial, 2002	Annual growth (%)		Initial, 2002	Annual growth (%)
		AIDS	No AIDS		AIDS	No AIDS
GDP (R billions)	171	2.84	4.44	872	3.04	4.46
GDP per capita (R)	18,464	2.03	2.54	24,723	2.23	2.88
Population (millions)	9,250	0.79	1.85	35,252	0.79	1.54
African	7,999	0.93	2.08	28,045	0.94	1.80
Other	1,252	-0.23	-0.03	7,207	0.17	0.37
Dependency ratio (pop/employment)	4.86	5.05	4.98	4.41	4.40	4.31
African households	5.57	5.62	5.38	4.94	4.82	4.60
Other households	2.69	2.73	2.82	3.12	3.13	3.21
Total factor productivity	-	0.03	0.60	-	-0.04	0.50
Household savings rate (%)	1.76	1.40	3.51	0.50	0.40	1.00
Health spending share of income (%)	13.55	20.87	14.33	14.02	21.44	14.90
Poverty rates (%)
Incidence of poverty (P0)	36.66	19.46	20.00	24.83	10.50	9.51
Depth of poverty (P1)	14.73	6.02	6.20	9.40	3.46	3.15
Severity of poverty (P2)	7.71	2.69	2.77	4.91	1.74	1.60
Number of poor people (thousands)	3,391	2,157	2,819	8,752	4,438	4,759
Number of AIDS deaths (thousands)	-	3,011	0	-	7,793	0

Source: Provincial DCGE model results.

Notes: Poverty is based on US$2 a day poverty line (R161 per adult equivalent per month in 2000 prices).

R: South African rands