Fig 2 Average time in days (with 95% confidence intervals) from initial detection of high risk of abuse to first diagnosis of abuse recorded in dataset, measured for both narrow and broad case definitions. Plot includes detected abuse cases only. Model detects risk an average of 10-30 months in advance of first recorded diagnosis, depending on desired levels of specificity (shown on log scale for clarity). At high levels of specificity, fewer cases are detected, resulting in larger confidence intervals