Table 1.
Best Estimates of the epidemiological parameters
| Parameter | Best Estimate | Interval estimate(a) | Description |
| R0 | 1.75 | 1.64 to 1.88 | Basic reproduction number |
| Gt | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | Mean generation time (days) |
| μ-1 | 2.5 | 1.1 to 4.0 | Mean infectious period (days) |
| αmin | 0.65 | 0.6 to 0.7 | Minimal seasonality rescaling |
| Assumed values: | |||
| Assumed value at best estimate | Sensitivity analysis range | ||
| ε-1 | 1.1 | 1.1 to 2.5 | Mean exposed period (days) |
| αmax | 1.1 | 1.0 to 1.1 | Maximum seasonality rescaling |
Estimates from the Monte Carlo likelihood analyses for various values of the parameter space explored. In Additional file 1 we report the complete tables corresponding to the sensitivity analysis. (a) For R0, we report the 95% Confidence Interval. Gt, μ-1 intervals are defined by the range of plausible constrained values sampled in the Monte Carlo approach that satisfy a likelihood ratio test at the 5% level. The αmin interval is the best-fit range within the minimal resolution allowed by the Monte Carlo sampling.