Table 4.
Daily new number of cases and epidemic sizes in several countries
| Country | Peak time | New daily cases at the peak time (thousands) | New daily cases at the peak time (% of population) | Epidemic size at 15 October (% of population) | |
| αmin 0.6 | αmin 0.7 | ||||
| United States | 24 September to 9 November | 2,983 to 3,302 | 1.06 to 1.17 | 4.99 to 7.38 | 23.76 to 29.96 |
| Canada | 4 October to 14 November | 331 to 373 | 1.04 to 1.17 | 2.28 to 4.56 | 16.90 to 27.41 |
| United Kingdom | 9 October to 18 November | 723 to 813 | 1.21 to 1.36 | 1.77 to 4.45 | 11.11 to 27.29 |
| France | 12 October to 21 November | 725 to 792 | 1.26 to 1.38 | 1.83 to 3.87 | 10.86 to 26.40 |
| Germany | 11 October to 20 November | 1,162 to 1,291 | 1.43 to 1.59 | 1.02 to 2.41 | 8.57 to 26.25 |
| Italy | 17 October to 23 November | 793 to 867 | 1.39 to 1.52 | 0.93 to 2.20 | 6.71 to 22.13 |
| Spain | 8 October to 19 November | 492 to 536 | 1.23 to 1.34 | 2.39 to 3.70 | 13.26 to 27.95 |
| China | 8 November to 11 December | 14,077 to 16,207 | 1.16 to 1.34 | 0.65 to 5.34 | 1.51 to 9.49 |
| Japan | 13 October to 16 November | 1,539 to 1,822 | 1.21 to 1.43 | 1.47 to 4.86 | 5.84 to 24.65 |
Peak times of the epidemic activity, daily new number of cases predicted at peak time and % of the population, and epidemic size on 15 October are shown. Intervals refer to the 95% confidence interval (CI). After 1 year from the start of the epidemic the percentage of total population infected is close to 45% with small differences of the order of 5% across different countries.