Table 1.

Model parameters and sources

Parameter	Value	Range	Source
Demographic Parameters
Total adult population	154,141,198	150–160 million	[53]
Male IDU	1,000,000	0.8–1.5 million	Calculated [7, 39, 52–55]
Male MSM	4,662,913	3.5–5.5 million	Calculated [7, 39, 52, 53]
Male IDU/MSM	300,000	200,000–500,000	Calculated [7, 39, 52–57]
Male Other	71,752,311	70–72 million	Calculated [7, 39, 52, 53]
Female IDU	450,000	300,00–600,000	Calculated [7, 39, 52–55]
Female Other	75,975,974	75–77 million	Calculated [7, 39, 52, 53]
HIV prevalence	0.7%	0.6–1.0%	Calculated [7, 39, 52–55]
Male IDU	13.6%	10–20%	Calculated [7, 39, 52–55]
Male MSM	10.6%	5–20%	Calculated [7, 39, 52, 53]
Male IDU/MSM	18.7%	15–30%	Calculated [7, 39, 52–57]
Male Other	0.14%	0.05–0.25%	Calculated [7, 39, 52, 53]
Female IDU	17.3%	15–30%	Calculated [7, 39, 52–55]
Female Other	0.29%	0.15–0.40%	Calculated [7, 39, 52, 53]
Mortality rate a
Male	0.0021	0.001–0.003	Calculated [75]
Female	0.0011	0.001–0.003	Calculated [75]
Injection Drug User	0.025	0–0.05	[58]
Maturation rate b
Male	0.0277	0.01–0.03	Calculated [53]
Female	0.0288	0.01–0.03	Calculated [53]
Entry rate c
Male	0.034	0.02–0.05	Calculated [53]
Female	0.033	0.02–0.05	Calculated [53]
Disease Parameters
Quality-of-life factor
Uninfected	1.0	---	[40]
Asymptomatic HIV – Untreated	0.89	0.85–0.95	[40, 76–79]
Symptomatic HIV – Untreated	0.72	0.70–0.80	[40, 76–79]
Symptomatic HIV – Treated with HAART	0.83	0.82–0.87	[40, 76–79]
AIDS – Untreated	0.72	0.60–0.75	[40, 76–79]
AIDS – Treated with HAART	0.82	0.82–0.87	[40, 76–79]
Injection Drug User (multiplier) d	0.9	0.80–1.0	[48, 58]
Injection Drug Use Parameters
Transmission probability per shared injection
Asymptomatic HIV	0.002	0.001–0.005	[48, 58]
Symptomatic HIV	0.003	0.001–0.005	[48, 58]
AIDS	0.003	0.001–0.005	[48, 58]
Average injections per year	200	100–500	[48, 58, 72]
Fraction of injections that are shared	20%	10–40%	[58, 61, 71, 73]
Sexual Behavior Parameters
Annual transmission probability per partnership
Heterosexual (FHIV+ → MHIV−)
Asymptomatic HIV	0.020	0.010–0.040	[40]
Symptomatic HIV	0.026	0.010–0.040	[40]
AIDS	0.065	0.030–0.060	[40]
Heterosexual (MHIV+ → FHIV−)
Asymptomatic HIV	0.030	0.020–0.050	[40]
Symptomatic HIV	0.040	0.020–0.050	[40]
AIDS	0.100	0.050–0.090	[40]
Homosexual (MHIV+ → MHIV−)
Asymptomatic HIV	0.040	0.030–0.060	[40]
Symptomatic HIV	0.050	0.030–0.060	[40]
AIDS	0.150	0.080–0.120	[40]
Annual number of same-sex partners
Male MSM	3.0	2.0–5.0	[62–64]
Male IDU/MSM	3.0	2.0–5.0	[61–63]
Condom usage with same-sex partners
Male MSM	40%	30–60%	[56, 62–64]
Male IDU/MSM	40%	30–50%	[61]
Annual number of opposite-sex partners
Male IDU	3.0	2.0–5.0	[65]
Male MSM	0.1	0–1.0	[64]
Male IDU/MSM	0.1	0–1.0	[66]
Male Other	1.1	0.5–2.0	[64, 67–70]
Female IDU	3.5	2.0–5.0	[65]
Female Other	1.1	0.5–2.0	[67–70]
Condom usage with opposite-sex partners
Male IDU	25%	15–35%	[56, 66]
Male MSM	30%	20–50%	[56, 61]
Male IDU/MSM	30%	30–50%	[61, 66]
Male Other	20%	10–40%	[67]
Female IDU	25%	20–50%	[65, 71]
Female Other	20%	10–40%	[67]
Treatment Parameters
Fraction starting HAART at symptom onset	50%	25–75%	Estimated [40]
HAART initiation rate after symptom onset	0.05	0–0.10	Estimated [40]
Reduction in injection infectivity due to HAART	50%	25–75%	[40, 48]
Reduction in sexual infectivity due to HAART	90%	50–99%	[40, 44–46, 48–51]
Circumcision Parameters
Fraction of males circumcised	70%	50–80%	[80]
Reduction in HIV acquisition due to circumcision	50%	48–60%	[59, 60]
Cost Parameters
Annual HIV-related healthcare costs
Asymptomatic HIV – Untreated	$3,967	$3,000–$6,000	[81, 82]
Symptomatic HIV – Untreated	$6,660	$5,000–$9,000	[81, 82]
Symptomatic HIV – Treated with HAART	$5,937	$5,000–7,000	[81, 82]
AIDS – Untreated	$21,000	$15,000–$25,000	[81–84]
AIDS – Treated with HAART	$9,557	$6,000–$17,000	[40, 82]
Annual non-HIV-related healthcare costs	$6,728	$5,000–$8,000	[85]
Annual cost of HAART	$14,974	$12,000–$18,000	[40, 82, 84]
Annual cost of IDU services	$2,500	$1,000–$4,000	[58]
Annual discount rate	3%	0–5%	[37]

IDU = Injection drug user, MSM = Men who have sex with men, Other = General population.

HAART = Highly active antiretroviral therapy.

^aMortality rate = non-HIV-related mortality rate among the population aged 15 to 49 years.

^bMaturation rate = rate 49-year olds turn age 50 and exit the population.

^cEntry rate = rate 14-year olds turn age 15 and enter the population.

^dQuality-of-life for all injection drug users is multiplied by this quantity.