Table 1.

Model Inputs and Ranges for Sensitivity Analysis

Variable	Base Case	Sensitivity Analysis Range	Reference(s)
Polyposis distribution and progression
Stage distribution at age 30 (%)			See methods
Stage 0	80	100/60
Stage I	11	0/18
Stage II	9	0/10
Stage III	0	0/10
Stage IV	0	0/2
Cancer	0	0/0
Transition probabilities per month (%)
Stages 0 to IV	0.46	50%-200% × BC	See methods
Stage IV to Cancer	0.37	50%-200% × BC
Endoscopy characteristics
Screening frequency			(16-17)
Stage 0	5 years
Stage I	5 years
Stage II	3 years
Stage III	1 year
Stage IV	6 months
Complication rate	1.6:100,000	50% - 200% × BC	(27-28)
False negative rate (%)	29	0-60	(26)
Symptomatic cancer presentation (%)	50	0-100	(23, 29)
Pancreaticoduodenectomy characteristics
Eligible for curative surgery (%)		25-75	(30)
Age 30-39	50
40-49	66
50-59	64
60-69	60
70-79	55
80+	33
Perioperative mortality (%)	5	0-10	(32-33)
Cancer mortality per month
Age-related	1.6 × US life table	1-2.1 × US life table	(12, 35)
Undiagnosed cancer (%)	0.11	0-1000% × BC	(30)
Post-curative surgery (%)		50% - 200% × BC	(34)
0-7 months	1.8
8-41 months	0.89
42-86 months	0.41
87 + months	0
Post-palliative surgery (%)		50% - 200% × BC	(34)
0-12 months	12
13 + months	5.7
Outcome adjustments
Utility reductions
Endoscopy	-0.3 * 1 day	0 - 0.5	(47)
Endoscopy complication	-0.3 * 1 week	0 - 0.5	(47)
Pancreaticoduodenectomy	-0.3 * 4 weeks	0 - 0.5	(40)
Quality of life adjustment factors
Well		1	(48)
Age 30-39	0.91
Age 40-49	0.88
Age 50-59	0.85
Age 60-69	0.83
Age 70-79	0.79
Age 80+	0.75
Post pancreaticoduodenectomy	0.98	0.8 - 1	See methods
Cancer	0.47	0.25 - 1	(49-50)
Discount rate (%)	3	0 - 5	(51)
Costs ($)
Cancer care	67,565	50% - 200% × BC	(52)
Endoscopy	903	50% - 200% × BC	(53)
Endoscopy complication	9,355	50% - 200% × BC	(54)
Pancreaticoduodenectomy	30,568	50% - 200% × BC	(40)
Post pancreaticoduodenectomy	159	50% - 200% × BC	See methods
Day's wages	147	50% - 200% × BC	US Bureau of Labor