Detection probability	Components	Distributions	Rationale
Medically attended illness	probability of testing, followup and reporting among medically attended cases	Uniform(.2,.35)	Data from CDC epi-aids in  Delaware and Chicago [19]
	PCR test sensitivity	Uniform(.95,1)	Assumption [19]
Hospitalization (Milwaukee)	probability of testing, followup and reporting among hospitalized cases	Uniform(.2,.4)	Assumption [19]
	PCR test sensitivity	Uniform(.95,1)	Assumption [19]
ICU admission (Milwaukee)	probability of testing, followup and reporting among hospitalized cases	Uniform(.2,.4)	Assumption [19]
	PCR test sensitivity	Uniform(.95,1)	Assumption [19]
Deaths (Milwaukee)	PCR test sensitivity and other detection	Beta(45,5)	Assumption [19] (mean 0.9,  standard deviation 0.05)
Hospitalization (New York City)	probability of performing PCR  (rapid A positive or ICU/ventilated)	.27+.73 (Uniform(.2,.71))	27% of cases were ICU-admitted  so received PCR test; remainder were  tested if rapid A positive, which has a  sensitivity of .2 [17] to .71 (sensitivity among ICU patients in NYC)
	PCR test sensitivity	Uniform(.95,1)	Assumption [19]
ICU/ventilation (New York City)	PCR test sensitivity	Uniform(.95,1)	Assumption [19]
Deaths (New York City)	PCR test sensitivity and other detection	Beta(45,5)	Assumption [19](mean 0.9,  standard deviation 0.05)