Table 2. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive value in percent (exact 95% confidence interval in brackets) for CSF and MRI parameters regarding conversion of clinically isolated syndrome to definite multiple sclerosis.
Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | |
OCB | 96 (86.0–99.5) | 33 (18.6–49.1) | 64 (51.5–74.4) | 87 (59.5–98.3) |
MRI | 78 (63.4–88.2) | 48 (31.5–63.9) | 64 (50.9–76.5) | 63 (43.9–80.0) |
Barkhof criteria | 35 (21.7–49.6) | 80 (64.4–91.0) | 68 (46.5–85.1) | 50 (37.2–62.8) |
MRZR | 47 (32.5–61.7) | 75 (58.8–87.3) | 70 (51.3–84.4) | 54 (39.7–67.0) |
MRZS | 31 (18.3–45.4) | 90 (76.3–97.2) | 79 (54.4–94.0) | 51 (39.2–63.6) |
OCB+MRI | 73 (58.9–85.1) | 60 (43.3–75.1) | 69 (54.9–81.3) | 65 (47.5–79.8) |
OCB+Barkhof | 33 (20.0–47.5) | 83 (67.2–92.7) | 70 (47.1–86.8) | 50 (37.4–62.6) |
OCB+MRZR | 47 (32.5–61.7) | 78 (61.6–89.2) | 72 (53.3–86.3) | 54 (40.7–67.6) |
OCB+MRZS | 31 (18.3–45.4) | 90 (76.3–97.2) | 79 (54.4–94.0) | 51 (39.2–63.6) |
MRI+MRZR | 33 (20.0–47.5) | 90 (76.3–97.2) | 80 (56.3–94.3) | 52 (39.8–64.4) |
Barkhof+MRZR | 14 (6.0–27.2) | 95 (83.1–99.4) | 78 (40.0–97.2) | 48 (36.2–59.0) |
MRI+MRZS | 20 (10.2–34.3) | 98 (86.8–99.9) | 91 (58.7–99.8) | 50 (38.5–61.5) |
Barkhof+MRZS | 10 (3.4–22.2) | 98 (86.8–99.9) | 83 (35.9–99.6) | 47 (35.9–58.3) |
OCB+MRI+MRZR | 33 (20.0–47.5) | 93 (79.6–98.4) | 84 (60.4–96.6) | 53 (40.6–64.9) |
OCB+Barkhof+MRZR | 14 (5.9–27.2) | 98 (86.8–99.9) | 88 (47.4–99.7) | 48 (36.9–59.5) |
OCB+MRI+MRZS | 20 (10.2–34.3) | 98 (86.8–99.9) | 91 (58.7–99.8) | 50 (38.5–61.5) |
OCB+Barkhof+MRZS | 10 (3.4–22.2) | 98 (86.8–99.9) | 83 (35.9–99.6) | 47 (35.9–58.3) |
MRZR = AI for measles, rubella, zoster, two or more AI ≥1.5, MRZS = MRZ score >10, OCB = oligoclonal bands in cerebrospinal fluid, MRI = two or more lesions in T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging of the brain.