Table 1. Comparison of Adjuvant! 10-year overall survival predictions with observed 10-year outcomes for 1065 women presenting at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford between 1986 and 1996.

	Patients		% Overall survival
Demographic, pathologic, and treatment characteristics	No.	%	Adjuvant! prediction	Observed	s.e.	Difference
All patients	1065	100	77.37	71.83	1.38	5.54†
Age, years
20–35	34	3.19	78.74	76.47	7.27	2.27
36–50	363	34.08	82.29	77.96	2.18	4.33*
51–65	458	43.00	78.47	74.45	2.04	4.02*
66–75	194	18.22	67.32	55.15	3.57	12.17†
⩾76	16	1.50	53.11	50.00	12.50	3.11
Menopausal status
Pre	397	37.28	81.98	77.83	2.08	4.15*
Post	668	62.72	74.62	68.26	1.80	6.36†
Histology
Ductal	799	75.02	76.99	70.71	1.61	6.28†
Lobular	116	10.89	78.25	74.14	4.07	4.11
Other	150	14.08	78.69	76.00	3.49	2.69
Grade
1	152	14.27	87.20	83.55	3.01	3.65
2	421	39.53	78.55	71.50	2.20	7.05†
3	248	23.29	69.50	59.68	3.11	9.82†
Unknown	244	22.91	77.20	77.46	2.68	−0.26
Nodal involvement
Negative	733	68.83	80.69	75.99	1.58	4.70†
Positive	332	31.17	70.03	62.65	2.65	7.38†
Tumour size
0.1–1 cm	150	14.08	88.77	82.67	3.09	6.10
1.1–2 cm	471	44.23	82.15	75.58	1.98	6.57†
2.1–5 cm	444	41.69	68.45	64.19	2.28	4.26
ER status
Negative	261	24.51	71.66	69.73	2.84	1.93
Positive	495	46.48	79.91	70.91	2.04	9.00†
Unknown	309	29.01	78.12	75.08	2.46	3.04
Local therapy
BCS+RT	822	77.18	78.98	74.94	1.51	4.04†
Mast+RT	119	11.17	69.51	58.82	4.51	10.69*
Mast, no RT	124	11.64	74.22	63.71	4.32	10.51*
Systemic therapy
None	252	23.66	77.98	71.83	2.83	6.15*
Hormones only	585	54.93	77.30	72.82	1.84	4.48*
Chemotherapy only	83	7.79	74.97	66.27	5.19	8.70
Hormones+chemotherapy	145	13.62	77.95	71.03	3.77	6.92

Abbreviations: BCS=breast conserving surgery; ER=oestrogen receptor; Mast=mastectomy; RT=radiotherapy. ^*P<0.05, ^†P<0.01.