Table 4. Comparison of Adjuvant! 10-year predictions and observed breast cancer-specific survival for women presenting at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford between 1986 and 1996 and who did and did not receive adjuvant systemic therapy.

	Patients		% Breast cancer-specific survival without adjuvant systemic therapy				Patients		% breast cancer-specific survival with some adjuvant systemic therapy
Demographic, pathologic, and treatment characteristics	No.	%	Adjuvant! prediction	observed	s.e.	Difference	No.	%	Adjuvant! prediction	Observed	s.e.	Difference
All patients	252	100	85.37	80.02	2.58	5.35*	806	100	84.57	80.31	1.43	4.26†
Age, years
⩽50	112	44.44	83.96	80.95	3.74	3.01	283	35.11	84.36	79.59	2.41	4.77*
51–65	91	36.11	86.74	79.89	4.24	6.85	363	45.04	85.02	82.35	2.04	2.67
⩾66	49	19.44	86.05	76.82	6.90	9.23	160	19.85	83.93	75.93	3.70	8.0*
Menopausal status
Pre	112	44.44	83.96	80.95	3.74	3.01	283	35.11	84.36	79.59	2.41	4.77*
Post	140	55.56	86.50	79.20	3.58	7.30*	523	64.89	84.69	80.61	1.79	4.08*
Grade
1–2	112	44.44	89.60	82.42	3.67	7.18	460	57.07	88.26	84.21	1.75	4.05*
3	53	21.03	76.00	71.33	6.49	4.67	190	23.57	76.01	69.59	3.44	6.42
Unknown	87	34.52	85.63	82.04	4.21	3.59	156	19.35	84.11	81.78	3.12	2.33
Nodal involvement
Negative	241	95.63	86.24	80.52	2.61	5.72*	488	60.55	89.51	87.09	1.56	2.42
Positive	11	4.37	66.28	68.59	15.15	−2.31	318	39.45	77.00	69.95	2.63	7.05†
Tumour size
0.1–2 cm	158	62.70	91.85	82.88	3.06	8.97†	460	57.07	90.95	86.84	1.61	4.11*
2.1–5 cm	94	37.30	74.48	75.10	4.62	−0.62	346	42.93	76.10	71.45	2.50	4.65
ER status
Negative	59	23.41	80.22	75.09	5.77	5.13	200	24.81	76.52	74.51	3.12	2.01
Positive	67	26.59	90.03	75.98	5.44	14.05*	424	52.61	88.30	82.84	1.90	5.46†
Unknown	126	50.00	85.30	84.44	3.29	0.90	182	22.58	84.75	80.80	2.96	3.95

Abbreviation: ER=oestrogen receptor.

^*P<0.05, ^†P<0.01.