Table 3.
Cost reduction by exclusion of high risk patients
| Cut off point* | Risk group | No of patients excluded (% of all patients) | No of 1 year survivors lost (% of excluded patients) | Cost saving in £ (% of total cost over 5 years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.36 | High | 26 (8.9) | 5 (19.2) | 407 495 (3.2) |
| 0.5 | Medium | 52 (17.8) | 18 (34.6) | 1 227 831 (9.3) |
| 0.7 | Medium | 100 (34.3) | 49 (49.0) | 3 012 482 (23.3) |
| 0.85 | Medium | 146 (50.0) | 84 (57.5) | 5 182 950 (40.1) |
| 0.94 | Medium | 194 (66.4) | 125 (64.4) | 7 428 667 (57.4) |
*
Cut off points obtained from logistic regression equation.
ez
Predictive probability =
1+ez
where z=6.3565 [constant]−(age×0.0388)−(comorbidity severity score×0.2650)−([100−Karnofsky performance score]×0.0418).