Table 3.

Table 3A. Absolute 10-year Risk for Cardiovascular Disease after Bariatric Surgery Using Risk Prediction Models in the study by Batsis et al12 using Individual data
	Non-Operative Group					Operative Group					Inter-Group
	Initial	Follow-up	Δ Risk	Relative Risk Reduction	P-value	Initial	Follow-up	Δ Risk	Relative Risk Reduction	P-value	Δ Risk	P-value
Framingham
Males	12.0±9.0	10.2±7.7	−1.8	15	0.04	10.7±6.5	4.5±3.1	−6.2	58	<0.001	−4.4	<0.001
Females	5.2±5.5	5.1±4.9	−0.1	1.3	0.85	6.1±6.2	3.3±3.3	−2.9	47	<0.001	−2.8	<0.001
Overall	7.1±7.3	6.5±6.2	−0.6	8	0.13	7.0±6.5	3.5±3.3	−3.5	50	<0.001	−3.0	<0.001
PROCAM
Males	6.1±6.0	4.7±4.5	−1.3	22	0.10	5.5±±5.6	2.7±3.2	−2.8	51	<0.001	−1.5	0.04
Females	3.8±4.9	3.4±3.9	−0.4	9	0.34	3.8±4.1	1.8±1.8	−2.0	52	<0.001	−1.6	<0.001
Overall	4.4 ± 5.3	3.8±4.0	−0.6	14	0.08	4.1±4.5	2.0±2.2	−2.1	52	<0.001	−1.5	<0.001

TABLE 3B. Age Standardized at 55 years
	Non-Operative					Operative					Inter-Group
	Initial	Follow-up	Δ Risk	Relative Risk Reduction	P-value	Initial	Follow-up	Δ Risk	Relative Risk Reduction	P-value	Δ Risk	P-value
Framingham
Males	17.3±9.2	13.1±6.4	−4.2	24	<0.001	17.0±7.5	5.8±3.5	−11.1	66	<0.001	−7.0	<0.001
Females	9.4±5.4	8.0±4.5	−1.5	16	0.01	9.8±6.0	4.4±2.9	−5.5	56	<0.001	−4.0	<0.001
Overall	11.6±7.5	9.4±5.6	−2.2	19	<0.001	11.2±6.9	4.7±3.1	−6.5	58	<0.001	−4.3	<0.001
PROCAM
Males	12.5±8.7	7.7±4.5	−4.8	38	<0.001	11.2±6.8	3.6±3.1	−7.6	68	<0.001	−2.8	0.02
Females	8.6±6.4	7.1±6.0	−1.6	18	0.01	8.4±6.5	2.8±1.9	−5.6	67	<0.001	−4.0	<0.001
Overall	9.6±7.2	7.2±5.6	−2.4	25	<0.001	8.9±6.6	3.0±2.2	−6.0	67	<0.001	−3.6	<0.001

All risks are represented as 10-year risk (%) ± standard deviation

^ΔRisk calculation is based on unrounded values

A negative Δ Risk represents an improvement at follow-up as compared to baseline. A negative inter-group Δ Risk represents the difference between surgical and controls, in favor of the surgical group. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest whole number.

PROCAM–Prospective Cardiovascular Munster Heart Study