Figure 4. Optimal policies. (4a) Optimal policies combining prevalence-based (red) and pro rata distributions (blue). Each row gives the optimal sequence of actions for a given value of uptake. (4b) Optimal pro rata distributions. (4c) Performance of actions for the first (August) distribution. Darkness indicates how many times an action was visited during the optimization routine. At a modest and perhaps realistic 20 % uptake, the optimal combined strategy begins with distributing half of the remaining federal stockpile pro rata followed by monthly distributions of 10M proportional to prevalence, 10M pro rata, none, and 5M pro rata. The optimal pro rata policy is an initial distribution of the entire 50M regimens. (4c) indicates, however, that, at this uptake rate, all other distribution options are expected to perform similarly.
