Table 2.
Rates and risk factors for death or treatment failure by Cox proportional hazards regression among 48,785 patients included in the analysis (death) or the 31,070 with at least one follow-up CD4 cell count recorded (treatment failure) in the National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program, China, June 2002 – August 2008.
| Death | Treatment Failure | Death or Treatment Failure† | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univariate (No.=48785) | Multivariable (No.=24526) |
Univariate (No.=31070) | Multivariable (No.=15869) |
Univariate (No.=48785) | Multivariable (No.=24526) |
||||||
| No. | Rate per 100 patient- years |
HR (95% CI) |
HR (95% CI) | No. | Rate per 100 patient- years |
HR (95% CI) |
HR (95% CI) | Rate per 100 patient- years |
HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | |
| Age, years | |||||||||||
| 18-44 | 35247 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 22404 | 12.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 45-59 | 11642 | 7.5 | 1.2 (1.1-1.2) | 1.3 (1.1-1.4) | 7592 | 12.0 | 1.0 (0.9-1.0) | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 15.3 | 1.0 (0.9-1.0) | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) |
| ≥60 | 1896 | 14.0 | 1.8 (1.6-2.0) | 1.9 (1.5-2.2) | 1074 | 13.8 | 1.2 (1.0-1.3) | 1.1 (0.9-1.3) | 22.7 | 1.6 (1.5-1.7) | 1.5 (1.3-1.7) |
| Sex | |||||||||||
| Female | 20441 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 13526 | 10.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Male | 28320 | 9.0 | 1.5 (1.4-1.5) | 1.4 (1.3-1.5) | 17535 | 13.6 | 1.3 (1.3-1.4) | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 17.7 | 1.4 (1.4-1.5) | 1.2 (1.2-1.3) |
| Marriage | |||||||||||
| Married/Live Together | 36302 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 23590 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 14.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Single/Divorced/Widowed | 12426 | 9.2 | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 7459 | 13.9 | 1.2 (1.2-1.3) | 1.1 (1.0-1.1) | 18.2 | 1.3 (1.2-1.3) | 1.1 (1.1-1.2) |
| Infection route | |||||||||||
| Sexual transmission | 13923 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8715 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 18.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Injection drug users | 6700 | 10.4 | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 1.3 (1.1-1.5) | 3623 | 16.0 | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 1.1 (0.9-1.2) | 21.1 | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) |
| Former plasma donors/blood transfusion | 25778 | 7.0 | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 1.4 (1.3-1.5) | 17222 | 11.2 | 0.7 (0.6-0.7) | 1.4 (1.3-1.5) | 14.0 | 0.6 (0.6-0.7) | 1.0 (0.9-1.0) |
| Baseline CD4 cell count, cells/μL | |||||||||||
| ≥200 | 7869 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5124 | 26.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 20.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 50-199 | 13316 | 6.7 | 1.8 (1.6-2.0) | 1.7 (1.5-2.0) | 8993 | 13.2 | 0.5 (0.5-0.6) | 0.5 (0.5-0.6) | 16.3 | 0.8 (0.7-0.9) | 0.8 (0.7-0.9) |
| <50 | 9037 | 15.9 | 4.1 (3.6-4.6) | 3.3 (2.9-3.8) | 5621 | 20.9 | 0.8 (0.8-0.9) | 0.9 (0.8-0.9) | 29.6 | 1.6 (1.5-1.7) | 1.4 (1.3-1.5) |
| Hemoglobin, g/dL | |||||||||||
| ≥8 | 40263 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 26049 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 14.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| <8 | 2070 | 19.4 | 2.6 (2.4-2.8) | 2.1 (1.9-2.4) | 1100 | 16.1 | 1.4 (1.2-1.5) | 1.1 (1.0-1.3) | 28.6 | 2.0 (1.9-2.2) | 1.5 (1.4-1.7) |
| ALT (SGPT), U/L | |||||||||||
| <100 | 38350 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 24632 | 11.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| ≥100 | 1370 | 11.1 | 1.4 (1.2-1.6) | 1.2 (0.9-1.4) | 834 | 15.1 | 1.3 (1.1-1.5) | 1.1 (0.9-1.3) | 21.1 | 1.5 (1.4-1.7) | 1.1 (1.0-1.3) |
| Number of baseline symptom categories | |||||||||||
| 0 | 9102 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5916 | 12.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 7533 | 4.9 | 1.5 (1.3-1.6) | 1.6 (1.3-2.0) | 4932 | 11.8 | 0.9 (0.9-1.0) | 1.0 (0.9-1.2) | 12.7 | 1.0 (0.9-1.0) | 1.1 (1.0-1.3) |
| 2-3 | 19636 | 8.0 | 2.5 (2.2-2.7) | 2.4 (2.0-2.8) | 12324 | 12.2 | 1.0 (0.9-1.0) | 1.1 (1.0-1.2) | 15.7 | 1.2 (1.1-1.3) | 1.3 (1.2-1.4) |
| 4-5 | 12451 | 9.9 | 3.1 (2.8-3.5) | 3.4 (2.9-4.0) | 7870 | 12.2 | 1.0 (0.9-1.0) | 1.1 (1.0-1.2) | 17.5 | 1.3 (1.3-1.4) | 1.5 (1.4-1.6) |
†
Numbers for Death or Treatment Failure column are the same as numbers for Death column.
Note: HR=hazard ratio; CI=confidence interval; ALT=alanine aminotransferase; SGPT=serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase