Table 2.
Adaptive sequences of trials
What is adaptive | Based on | Example | Benefit | Special trial requirement | Caution | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Decision to conduct a full-size trial | Pilot trial | Pilot trial result determines whether intervention is worth testing with a fully powered trial | Avoid funding unworthy programs | Cannot use for long-term outcomes | Sample size and power can be incorrect | Kraemer et al. 2006 (78) |
Merging multiple stages of research | Combining research questions | Roll-out trial Dynamic wait list | Ability to evaluate as a program is implemented | Community wants full implementation and is willing to use wait listing | Challenges in implementing program with sufficient strength | Brown et al. 2006 (25) |
Reusing a trial sample in a new trial | Developmental appropriateness of further intervention | Rerandomize subjects to a second trial | Ability to examine early or late intervention | Maintain low attrition | Differential attrition | Campbell et al. 1994 (27) |
Screening of intervention components | Fractional factorial designs and analysis | Multiphase optimization strategy | Increased efficiency | Large samples are required | Can fail if there are high-level interactions between components | Collins et al. 2007 (35) |
Modification of intervention as it is implemented | Sequence of small experiments that can be combined | Cumulative adaptive trial | Streamlined improvement of the intervention | Sufficiently strong mediators or proximal targets to demonstrate effectiveness | Potential effect on Type I error | Brown et al. 2007 (24) |