Table 1.
Variable | Input values |
---|---|
Test characteristics (%) | |
Cytology (26–28) † | |
Sensitivity (CIN 1/CIN 2,3) | 70/80 |
Specificity | 95 |
HPV DNA test (4, 28) ‡ | |
Sensitivity (CIN 1/CIN 2,3) | 83/93 |
Specificity | 93 |
Costs (2006 US dollars) § | |
HPV vaccine (per dose) (32–35) ∥ | |
Vaccine and wastage | 134 |
Supplies and administration | 9 |
Patient time and transport | 24 |
Screening test (5, 36–39) | |
Cytology | 32 |
HPV DNA test (Hybrid Capture II) | 49 |
Office visit | 27 |
Patient time and transport | 26 |
Diagnostic follow-up (5, 36–38) | |
Colposcopy | 364 |
Biopsy | 53 |
Office visit | 61 |
Patient time and transport | 51 |
Treatment for CIN 2,3 (5) ¶ | 3,438 |
Treatment for cervical cancer (5) ¶ | |
Local invasive cancer | 26,123 |
Regional invasive cancer | 27,958 |
Distant invasive cancer | 44,780 |
CIN, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, grade 1 (CIN 1) or grade 2,3 (CIN 2,3); HPV, human papillomavirus.
Sensitivity for detecting CIN 2,3 was calculated as the weighted average of values from two recent studies reporting conventional and liquid-based cytology sensitivities using an ASCUS+ threshold (27, 28).
HPV DNA testing is assumed to be 100% sensitive (specific) in detecting the presence (absence) of high-risk HPV types. When this assumption is made, the model generates an implied clinical sensitivity for detecting CIN 1 and CIN 2,3 of 83.0% and 93.0%, respectively, and specificity of 93.0%.
Costs were inflation-adjusted to constant 2006 U.S. dollars (USD) using the medical component of the Consumer Price Index (40).
Vaccination assumes three doses; cost per vaccinated individual is $500.
Treatment costs are inclusive of cost of procedures, office visit, and woman’s time.