Table III.

Predictions for response probabilities based on the fitted multinomial logistic model under logit and probit link functions. The predictor is computed from the MLE estimates (Table II). Response categories 1-4 are same as in Table II

		Response probabilities
Link	Age a	Year t	y=1	y=2	y=3	y=4
Probit	60	1985	0.697	0.115	0.054	0.126
Logit			0.595	0.149	0.097	0.159
Probit	70		0.516	0.126	0.100	0.250
Logit			0.449	0.159	0.138	0.253
Probit	80		0.322	0.117	0.149	0.403
Logit			0.305	0.153	0.178	0.364
Probit	60	1992	0.769	0.116	0.032	0.077
Logit			0.661	0.150	0.073	0.117
Probit	70		0.613	0.138	0.067	0.174
Logit			0.526	0.168	0.109	0.197
Probit	80		0.423	0.141	0.113	0.314
Logit			0.379	0.172	0.149	0.300
Probit	60	2000	0.828	0.112	0.015	0.039
Logit			0.723	0.146	0.051	0.080
Probit	70		0.706	0.144	0.038	0.105
Logit			0.605	0.173	0.080	0.142
Probit	80		0.536	0.162	0.075	0.219
Logit			0.465	0.188	0.117	0.230