Table 3.
Model predicted cancer (all stages) and false positive test results per 100,000 (Ontario).
| Strategy | False Positives | Cancer (All Stages) |
|---|---|---|
| No Intervention (Natural history) 1 | - | 2,145 |
| HPV with Pap Triage, q5, age 251(SS 26) | 2,871 | 736 |
| HPV with Pap Triage, q3, age 251(SS 23) | 5,585 | 467 |
| HPV with Pap Triage, q5, age 18 (SS 25) | 7,044 | 679 |
| HPV with Pap Triage, q3, age 181 (SS 22) | 9,872 | 437 |
| Miller at age 18, then HPV with Pap Triage, q5, age 25 (SS 27) | 11,404 | 658 |
| Miller at age 18, then HPV with Pap Triage, q3, age 25 (SS 24) | 14,160 | 411 |
| Miller strategy (Pap q1 beginning at age 18, then q3 at age 21) (SS 1) | 20,529 | 809 |
| HPV only, q5, age 25 (SS 8) | 22,437 | 586 |
| Pap only, q2, age 18 (SS 3) | 25,103 | 600 |
| Pap with HPV Triage, q1, age 25 (SS 20) | 27,660 | 364 |
| Pap and HPV, q5, age 25 (SS 17) | 30,817 | 548 |
| Miller at age 18, then Pap with HPV Triage, q1, age 251(SS 21) | 37,034 | 330 |
| HPV only, q3, age 25 (SS 5) | 40,789 | 361 |
| HPV only, q5, age 18 (SS 7) | 40,957 | 538 |
| Pap with HPV Triage, q1, age 181(SS 19) | 44,903 | 309 |
| Pap only, q1, age 181(SS 2) | 46,337 | 303 |
| Pap and HPV, q5, age 18 (SS16) | 50,790 | 500 |
| Pap and HPV, q3, age 25 (SS 14) | 54,835 | 335 |
| HPV only, q3, age 18 (SS 4) | 60,456 | 330 |
| Miller at age 18, then HPV only, q5, age 25 (SS 9) | 61,375 | 517 |
| Miller at age 18, then Pap and HPV, q5, age 25 (SS 18) | 73,470 | 481 |
| Pap and HPV, q3, age 18 (SS 13) | 76,438 | 304 |
| Miller at age 18, then HPV only, q3, age 25 (SS 6) | 79,887 | 301 |
| Pap and HPV, q2, age 25 (SS 11) | 82,340 | 229 |
| Miller at age 18, then Pap and HPV, q3, age 25 (SS 15) | 97,645 | 283 |
| Pap and HPV, q2, age 181(SS 10) | 118,646 | 180 |
| Miller at age 18, then Pap and HPV, q2, age 252 (SS 12) | 125,229 | 184 |
1 Strategy falls on the efficiency frontier (for Ontario)