Table 1.
Regression coefficients on climate variables, with civil war as a dependent variable
| Variable | Model 1 |
Model 2 |
Model 3 |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coefficient | SE | Coefficient | SE | Coefficient | SE | |
| Temperature | 0.0447** | (0.0218) | 0.0430* | (0.0217) | 0.0489* | (0.0275) |
| Temperature lagged 1 year | 0.00873 | (0.0210) | 0.0132 | (0.0233) | 0.0206 | (0.0298) |
| Precipitation | −0.0230 | (0.0519) | 0.0165 | (0.0848) | ||
| Precipitation lagged 1 year | 0.0250 | (0.0489) | 0.0278 | (0.0811) | ||
| Per capita income lagged 1 year | −0.0266 | (0.0258) | ||||
| Political regime type lagged 1 year | −0.000538 | (0.00576) | ||||
| Constant | −1.514 | (0.923) | −1.581* | (0.854) | −1.872 | (1.254) |
| Observations | 889 | 889 | 815 | |||
| R2 | 0.657 | 0.657 | 0.389 | |||
| RMSE | 0.193 | 0.193 | 0.241 | |||
Coefficients represent effect of temperature (°C) and precipitation (m) on civil war in Africa, 1981–2002. All regressions include country fixed effects to control for time-invariant country characteristics; Models 1 and 2 include country time trends to control for time-varying country characteristics. Model 3 includes lagged income ($1,000) and political regime type [score from least democratic (−10) to most democratic (+10)] as controls, and includes a common time trend. Standard errors are robust and clustered at the country level. Asterisks indicate coefficient significance level (2-tailed): ***, P < .01; **, P < .05; *, P < .10.