Table 1.

Results from hierarchical age-period-cohort models of obesity for U.S. adults and groups defined by race and gender, NHIS 1976-2002

Fixed Effects	U.S. Adults	Non-Black Females	Black Females	Non-Black Males	Black Males
Intercept, π₀	−1.9876 ^***	−2.0675 ^***	−1.2201 ^***	−2.0942 ^***	−1.9294 ^***
Age, π₁	0.0588 ^***	0.0613 ^***	0.0752 ^***	0.0560 ^***	0.0640 ^***
Age², π₂	−0.0010 ^***	−0.0009 ^***	−0.0012 ^***	−0.0010 ^***	−0.0013 ^***
Random Effects
Period Effects, σ_t0	0.1363 ^***	0.1280 ^***	0.1034 ^***	0.1687 ^***	0.1007 ^***
1976	−0.5243 ^***	−0.4960 ^***	−0.3386 ^***	−0.6108 ^***	−0.4900 ^***
1977	−0.4740 ^***	−0.4269 ^***	−0.3479 ^***	−0.5751 ^***	−0.3784 ^**
1978	−0.4430 ^***	−0.4435 ^***	−0.3360 ^***	−0.4834 ^***	−0.3135 ^***
1979	−0.4228 ^***	−0.3996 ^***	−0.3919 ^***	−0.4595 ^***	−0.3913 ^***
1980	−0.3767 ^***	−0.3557 ^***	−0.2912 ^***	−0.4408 ^***	−0.2226 ^**
1981	−0.3618 ^***	−0.3455 ^***	−0.3228 ^***	−0.3982 ^***	−0.3096 ^***
1982	−0.3492 ^***	−0.3242 ^***	−0.2732 ^***	−0.4070 ^***	−0.3233 ^***
1983	−0.3143 ^***	−0.3150 ^***	−0.2260 ^**	−0.3489 ^***	−0.2394 ^**
1984	−0.2747 ^***	−0.2639 ^***	−0.2557 ^***	−0.2989 ^***	−0.2579 ^**
1985	−0.2143 ^**	−0.2008 ^**	−0.2514 ^***	−0.2266 ^**	−0.2273 ^**
1986	−0.1685 ^*	−0.1856 ^**	−0.1817 ^*	−0.1521	−0.1545
1987	−0.1346	−0.1440 ^*	−0.1591 ^*	−0.1232	−0.1410
1988	−0.1174	−0.1213	−0.1636 ^*	−0.1086	−0.1227
1989	−0.0544	−0.0715	−0.1189	−0.0215	−0.0797
1990	−0.0390	−0.0431	−0.0967	−0.0369	0.0424
1991	0.0292	0.0262	0.0253	0.0367	−0.0418
1992	0.0992	0.0750	0.0792	0.1199	0.1652
1993	0.1720 ^*	0.1652 ^*	0.2298 ^**	0.1698 ^*	0.1370
1994	0.2118 ^**	0.1945 ^**	0.1657 ^*	0.2357 ^**	0.2445 ^**
1995	0.2559 ^***	0.2493 ^***	0.1929 ^**	0.2877 ^***	0.1964 ^**
1996	0.2989 ^***	0.2651 ^***	0.2472 ^***	0.3485 ^***	0.3217 ^***
1997	0.4103 ^***	0.4154 ^***	0.3437 ^***	0.4361 ^***	0.3476 ^***
1998	0.4625 ^***	0.4672 ^***	0.3600 ^***	0.4883 ^***	0.4752 ^***
1999	0.5291 ^***	0.5282 ^***	0.3636 ^***	0.6015 ^***	0.3316 ^***
2000	0.5549 ^***	0.5659 ^***	0.5256 ^***	0.5884 ^***	0.3728 ^***
2001	0.6053 ^***	0.6044 ^***	0.5703 ^***	0.6481 ^***	0.4793 ^***
2002	0.6400 ^***	0.5803 ^***	0.6513 ^***	0.7307 ^***	0.5791 ^***
Cohort Effects, σ_k0	0.0096 ^**	0.0157 ^**	0.0311 ^*	0.0019 ^*	0.0295 ^*
1890	0.1127 ^*	0.0579	0.0581	0.0284	0.1038
1900	0.0855 ^*	0.0723	0.0691	−0.0018	0.0691
1905	0.0401	0.0453	0.0609	−0.0064	−0.0278
1910	0.0203	0.0426	0.0329	−0.0271	0.0855
1915	−0.0284	0.0003	0.0165	−0.0402	0.0142
1920	−0.0470	−0.0326	−0.0679	−0.0044	−0.0206
1925	−0.0523 ^*	−0.0737 ^*	−0.0228	0.0242	−0.0404
1930	−0.0489	−0.0804 ^*	−0.0707	0.0342 ^*	0.0140
1935	−0.0665 ^**	−0.1106 ^***	−0.0998	0.0397 ^*	−0.1422 ^*
1940	−0.0833 ^***	−0.1339 ^***	−0.1455 ^**	0.0301	−0.1790 ^**
1945	−0.0934 ^***	−0.1235 ^***	−0.2056 ^***	0.0086	−0.2256 ^***
1950	−0.1013 ^***	−0.1024 ^**	−0.2250 ^***	−0.0437 ^**	−0.1837 ^***
1955	−0.1222 ^***	−0.1310 ^***	−0.2297 ^***	−0.0617 ^***	−0.2382 ^***
1960	−0.0992 ^***	−0.1087 ^**	−0.0953	−0.0895 ^***	−0.0250
1965	0.0386	0.0380	0.0888	0.0170	0.1029
1970	0.1381 ^***	0.2055 ^***	0.2030 ^**	0.0164	0.3332 ^***
1975	0.1784 ^***	0.2496 ^***	0.4064 ^***	0.0431	0.1331
1980	0.1288 ^**	0.1851 ^**	0.2267 ^*	0.0329	0.2267 ^*

Notes: σ_t0 and σ_k0 refer to the variance of random effects for period and cohort, respectively.

Standard errors for parameter estimates are omitted in the interest of space.

p < 0.05

^**

p < 0.01

^***

p < 0.001