Table 4.

Tendencies to by systematically optimistic or pessimistic: Distribution of survey response across different subjective probabilities

	Five-year mortality
	1st quartile	2nd quartile	3rd quartile	4th quartile	Total
One-year mortality
1st quartile	69.12	17.26	13.31	1.57	29.09
2nd quartile	30.04	40.98	13.31	2.35	24.15
3rd quartile	0.32	41.20	50.87	14.29	25.18
4th quartile	0.53	0.56	22.50	81.79	21.58
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Infant mortality
1st quartile	55.93	41.54	30.16	27.59	40.78
2nd quartile	16.37	20.27	18.10	15.83	17.73
3rd quartile	11.65	20.60	20.00	21.63	17.95
4th quartile	16.05	17.59	31.75	34.95	23.53
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Win if play Bawo
1st quartile	33.61	31.59	30.79	28.53	31.42
2nd quartile	23.95	25.03	30.16	24.45	25.62
3rd quartile	21.85	22.47	21.11	24.45	22.41
4th quartile	20.59	20.91	17.94	22.57	20.55
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00

Note: The diagonal elements in each panel are indicated in bold.