Table 1. Detection probabilities and their prior distributions.
| Detection Probability | Components | Distributions | Rationale |
| dM Medically attended illness | dM 1 probability of testing, follow-up, and reporting among medically attended patients | Uniform (0.2,0.35) | Data from CDC epi-aids in Delaware and Chicago [19] |
| dM = dM 1 dM 2 | dM 2 PCR test sensitivity | Uniform (0.95,1) | Assumption [19] |
| dHW Hospitalization (Milwaukee) | dHW1 probability of testing, follow-up, and reporting among hospitalized patients | Uniform (0.2,0.4) | Assumption [19] |
| dHW = dHW 1 dHW 2 | dHW 2 PCR test sensitivity | Uniform (0.95,1) | Assumption [19] |
| dIW ICU admission (Milwaukee) | dIW 1 probability of testing, follow-up and reporting among hospitalized patients | Uniform (0.2,0.4) | Assumption [19] |
| dIW = dIW 1 dIW 2 |
 PCR test sensitivity |
Uniform (0.95,1) | Assumption [19] |
| dDW Deaths (Milwaukee) | PCR test sensitivity and other detection | Beta (45,5) | Assumption [19] (mean 0.9, standard deviation 0.05) |
| dHW Hospitalization (New York City) | dHN 1 probability of performing PCR (rapid A positive or ICU/ventilated) | 0.27+0.73 (Uniform (0.2,0.71)) | 27% of cases were ICU-admitted so received PCR test; remainder were tested if rapid A positive, which has a sensitivity of 0.2 [17] to 0.71 (sensitivity among ICU patients in NYC) |
| dHN = dHN 1 dHN 2 | dHN 2 PCR test sensitivity | Uniform (0.95,1) | Assumption [19] |
| dIN ICU/ventilation (New York City) | PCR test sensitivity | Uniform (0.95,1) | Assumption [19] |
| dDN Deaths (New York City) | PCR test sensitivity and other detection | Beta (45,5) | Assumption [19] (mean 0.9, standard deviation 0.05) |