Table 6.
Effects of global ENSO cycles on the monthly incidence of dengue cases
| Model* | R2 |
|---|---|
| Southern tropical coastal region | |
| Global index model | 0.15 |
| Local climate model | 0.29 |
| Combined model | 0.33 |
| North inland mountainous region | |
| Global index model | 0.22 |
| Local climate model | 0.57 |
| Combined model | 0.69 |
*see Appendix for details. Global index model, model with multivariate ENSO index (MEI) lagged 1-6 months; Local climate model, model with local temperature lagged 1-3 months and relative humidity lagged 3-6 months; Combined model, model with both MEI and local temperature/relative humidity.